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Sha Tin · 2021-03-28

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GALLANT EXPRESS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1-3/4, with SMART WONGCHOY second and DIAMOND BRILLIANT third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 GALLANT EXPRESS E1 1.08.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 4 2.1 1-3/4
2 12 SMART WONGCHOY H A Badel · D J Whyte 2 9.4 1-3/4
3 1 DIAMOND BRILLIANT TT Z Purton · T P Yung 3 9.9 2-3/4
4 14 IRON KING H/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 12 41.0 3-1/4
5 8 SEASONS BLISS C Schofield · K H Ting 7 14.0 3-1/2
6 4 DRAGON FORTUNE TT K Teetan · F C Lor 5 5.1 3-1/2
7 13 VIGOR CHAMP B K C Leung · P F Yiu 6 21.0 4-1/4
8 2 FAMILY FOLKS A Hamelin · C W Chang 1 12.0 4-1/4
9 9 HAPPY TIME TT N Callan · W Y So 9 119.0 6-1/4
10 10 LOTUS FAVORITES H1 M F Poon · D J Hall 11 361.0 7
11 5 AUGUST MOON B C L Chau · P O'Sullivan 10 234.0 9-1/2
12 3 PEGASUS GLORY B Shinn · Y S Tsui 13 21.0 9-1/2
13 11 FORTUNE CARRIER B- H N Wong · C S Shum 14 87.0 10
14 7 GO GO SIXTEEN C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 23.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT EXPRESS2. SMART WONGCHOY+1.75L3. DIAMOND BRILLIANT+2.75L4. IRON KING+3.25L5. SEASONS BLISS+3.5L6. DRAGON FORTUNE+3.5L7. VIGOR CHAMP+4.25L8. FAMILY FOLKS+4.25L9. HAPPY TIME+6.25L10. LOTUS FAVORITES+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GALLANT EXPRESS (23.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 GALLANT EXPRESS 23.7% 4.22 1
2 1 DIAMOND BRILLIANT 16.4% 6.08 3
3 4 DRAGON FORTUNE 12.7% 7.90 6
4 2 FAMILY FOLKS 10.2% 9.79 8
5 13 VIGOR CHAMP 7.0% 14.28 7
6 12 SMART WONGCHOY 6.8% 14.81 2
7 3 PEGASUS GLORY 4.4% 22.68 12
8 8 SEASONS BLISS 4.4% 22.76 5
9 7 GO GO SIXTEEN 4.1% 24.44 14
10 14 IRON KING 4.0% 25.06 4
11 9 HAPPY TIME 2.6% 38.01 9
12 11 FORTUNE CARRIER 1.5% 66.15 13
13 5 AUGUST MOON 1.4% 70.19 11
14 10 LOTUS FAVORITES 0.8% 126.37 10
GALLANT EXPRESS — wonDIAMOND BRILLIANTDRAGON FORTUNEFAMILY FOLKSVIGOR CHAMPSMART WONGCHOYPEGASUS GLORYSEASONS BLISSGO GO SIXTEENIRON KINGHAPPY TIMEFORTUNE CARRIERAUGUST MOONLOTUS FAVORITES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 21

PLACE

1 20

6 12.5

12 28.5

QUINELLA

6,12 93

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 42

1,12 89.5

6,12 38.5

FORECAST

6,12 143

TIERCE

6,12,1 721

TRIO

1,6,12 216

FIRST 4

1,6,12,14 1,440

QUARTET

6,12,1,14 14,677

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 15

A2

5TH DOUBLE

13/6 488.5

13/12 183

TRIPLE TRIO

3,5,8/3,4,13/1,6,12 344,424

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,5,8/3,4,13/Any Combination 1,488