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Sha Tin · 2021-03-28

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A+3 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GOLDEN LINK Closed strongly 1.21.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P F Yiu 5 12.0 3/4
2 0 UNCLE STEVE Closed strongly SR/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 2 4.5 3/4
3 0 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E1 J Moreira · J Size 8 3.6 1
4 0 E STAR Closed strongly C L Chau · K L Man 9 11.0 1-1/4
5 0 XIANG YIN TT A Hamelin · F C Lor 1 13.0 1-1/2
6 0 HALL OF CHAMP Closed strongly B-/V1/TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 12 5.1 2-1/4
7 0 LET'S DO IT Closed strongly B Shinn · D J Hall 4 8.7 2-1/2
8 0 ALPHA HEDGE CP K C Leung · K W Lui 13 57.0 2-1/2
9 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 7 9.4 2-1/2
10 0 FLASH FAMOUS B-/TT R Maia · C H Yip 6 52.0 5
11 0 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 3 114.0 6-1/2
12 0 FANTASTIC SHOW B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 10 185.0 8-1/4
13 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP A Badel · P O'Sullivan 11 254.0 9

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-28 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOLDEN LINK, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with UNCLE STEVE second and BEAUTY FIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite BEAUTY FIT finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN LINK—2. UNCLE STEVE+0.75L3. BEAUTY FIT+1L4. E STAR+1.25L5. XIANG YIN+1.5L6. HALL OF CHAMP+2.25L7. LET'S DO IT+2.5L8. ALPHA HEDGE+2.5L9. BEAUTY SPIRIT+2.5L10. FLASH FAMOUS+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BEAUTY FIT (29.2%) finished 3rd — the winner GOLDEN LINK was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY FIT 29.2% 3.43 3
2 0 UNCLE STEVE 19.8% 5.05 2
3 0 GOLDEN LINK 8.9% 11.21 1
4 0 SKYEY SUPREME 8.6% 11.59 11
5 0 XIANG YIN 8.6% 11.69 5
6 0 BEAUTY SPIRIT 7.0% 14.20 9
7 0 HALL OF CHAMP 3.9% 25.84 6
8 0 FLASH FAMOUS 3.5% 28.35 10
9 0 E STAR 3.1% 32.47 4
10 0 ALPHA HEDGE 3.0% 33.38 8
11 0 LET'S DO IT 2.6% 37.81 7
12 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA 1.0% 99.08 13
13 0 FANTASTIC SHOW 0.7% 137.53 12
BEAUTY FITUNCLE STEVEGOLDEN LINK — wonSKYEY SUPREMEXIANG YINBEAUTY SPIRITHALL OF CHAMPFLASH FAMOUSE STARALPHA HEDGELET'S DO ITTURQUOISE ALPHAFANTASTIC SHOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 125.5

PLACE

3 16

4 17.5

13 37

QUINELLA

3,13 296.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 35

3,13 89.5

4,13 77

FORECAST

13,3 591

TIERCE

13,3,4 2,219

TRIO

3,4,13 244

FIRST 4

1,3,4,13 476

QUARTET

13,3,4,1 15,347

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 34

A1 —

4TH DOUBLE

5/3 38

5/13 864