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Sha Tin · 2021-03-28

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-28 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOLDEN LINK, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with UNCLE STEVE second and BEAUTY FIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite BEAUTY FIT finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 GOLDEN LINK Closed strongly 1.21.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P F Yiu 5 12.0 3/4
2 3 UNCLE STEVE Closed strongly SR/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 2 4.5 3/4
3 4 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E1 J Moreira · J Size 8 3.6 1
4 1 E STAR Closed strongly C L Chau · K L Man 9 11.0 1-1/4
5 9 XIANG YIN TT A Hamelin · F C Lor 1 13.0 1-1/2
6 11 HALL OF CHAMP Closed strongly B-/V1/TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 12 5.1 2-1/4
7 6 LET'S DO IT Closed strongly B Shinn · D J Hall 4 8.7 2-1/2
8 2 ALPHA HEDGE CP K C Leung · K W Lui 13 57.0 2-1/2
9 5 BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 7 9.4 2-1/2
10 8 FLASH FAMOUS B-/TT R Maia · C H Yip 6 52.0 5
11 12 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 3 114.0 6-1/2
12 10 FANTASTIC SHOW B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 10 185.0 8-1/4
13 7 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP A Badel · P O'Sullivan 11 254.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN LINK2. UNCLE STEVE+0.75L3. BEAUTY FIT+1L4. E STAR+1.25L5. XIANG YIN+1.5L6. HALL OF CHAMP+2.25L7. LET'S DO IT+2.5L8. ALPHA HEDGE+2.5L9. BEAUTY SPIRIT+2.5L10. FLASH FAMOUS+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick BEAUTY FIT (29.2%) finished 3rd — the winner GOLDEN LINK was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 BEAUTY FIT 29.2% 3.43 3
2 3 UNCLE STEVE 19.8% 5.05 2
3 13 GOLDEN LINK 8.9% 11.21 1
4 12 SKYEY SUPREME 8.6% 11.59 11
5 9 XIANG YIN 8.6% 11.69 5
6 5 BEAUTY SPIRIT 7.0% 14.20 9
7 11 HALL OF CHAMP 3.9% 25.84 6
8 8 FLASH FAMOUS 3.5% 28.35 10
9 1 E STAR 3.1% 32.47 4
10 2 ALPHA HEDGE 3.0% 33.38 8
11 6 LET'S DO IT 2.6% 37.81 7
12 7 TURQUOISE ALPHA 1.0% 99.08 13
13 10 FANTASTIC SHOW 0.7% 137.53 12
BEAUTY FITUNCLE STEVEGOLDEN LINK — wonSKYEY SUPREMEXIANG YINBEAUTY SPIRITHALL OF CHAMPFLASH FAMOUSE STARALPHA HEDGELET'S DO ITTURQUOISE ALPHAFANTASTIC SHOW

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 125.5

PLACE

3 16

4 17.5

13 37

QUINELLA

3,13 296.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 35

3,13 89.5

4,13 77

FORECAST

13,3 591

TIERCE

13,3,4 2,219

TRIO

3,4,13 244

FIRST 4

1,3,4,13 476

QUARTET

13,3,4,1 15,347

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 34

A2

4TH DOUBLE

5/3 38

5/13 864