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Happy Valley · 2021-04-08

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-08 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MANNA FROM HEAVEN, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K L Man, won by 2-1/4, with SPEED TO EXCEED second and WELL DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite VEGA RHYTHM finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.40.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MANNA FROM HEAVEN Closed strongly H-/XB1 1.40.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K L Man 10 11.0 2-1/4
2 2 SPEED TO EXCEED Closed strongly XB1 C Y Ho · R Gibson 1 32.0 2-1/4
3 7 WELL DRAGON Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 11 13.0 3
4 3 DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT V Borges · J Size 12 50.0 4-3/4
5 1 HAPPY ICHIBAN B A Badel · D J Whyte 3 6.4 5-1/2
6 12 THE FULL BLOOM Closed strongly V R Maia · D J Hall 8 16.0 5-3/4
7 4 JOY MASTER V/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 4 6.5 5-3/4
8 11 VEGA RHYTHM B/H M F Poon · L Ho 2 3.9 7-1/2
9 5 HUMBLE STEED Closed strongly C Schofield · T P Yung 6 10.0 7-1/2
10 10 SHANGHAI POWER H2 Z Purton · Y S Tsui 9 7.6 9-1/2
11 9 SMART THINKER Closed strongly B2/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 5 8.3 9-1/2
12 8 SMILING SUCCESS Led early B/TT C Wong · K H Ting 7 41.0 22-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MANNA FROM HEAVEN2. SPEED TO EXCEED+2.25L3. WELL DRAGON+3L4. DIAMOND STAR+4.75L5. HAPPY ICHIBAN+5.5L6. THE FULL BLOOM+5.75L7. JOY MASTER+5.75L8. VEGA RHYTHM+7.5L9. HUMBLE STEED+7.5L10. SHANGHAI POWER+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SHANGHAI POWER (16.3%) finished 10th — the winner MANNA FROM HEAVEN was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SHANGHAI POWER 16.3% 6.14 10
2 4 JOY MASTER 14.8% 6.76 7
3 9 SMART THINKER 12.7% 7.85 11
4 1 HAPPY ICHIBAN 9.9% 10.06 5
5 11 VEGA RHYTHM 9.9% 10.10 8
6 5 HUMBLE STEED 8.0% 12.56 9
7 7 WELL DRAGON 7.3% 13.69 3
8 3 DIAMOND STAR 5.8% 17.27 4
9 6 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 4.3% 23.46 1
10 12 THE FULL BLOOM 4.0% 24.94 6
11 8 SMILING SUCCESS 3.9% 25.81 12
12 2 SPEED TO EXCEED 3.1% 31.95 2
SHANGHAI POWERJOY MASTERSMART THINKERHAPPY ICHIBANVEGA RHYTHMHUMBLE STEEDWELL DRAGONDIAMOND STARMANNA FROM HEAVEN — wonTHE FULL BLOOMSMILING SUCCESSSPEED TO EXCEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 118

PLACE

2 103

6 35

7 43

QUINELLA

2,6 2,247.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 642

2,7 582.5

6,7 271.5

FORECAST

6,2 3,623

TIERCE

6,2,7 45,108

TRIO

2,6,7 9,169

FIRST 4

2,3,6,7 24,928

QUARTET

6,2,7,3 460,170

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 23.5

A2