Happy Valley · 2021-04-08
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-08 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPERBELLA, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 4-3/4, with METHANE second and BRIGHT VISION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite BRIGHT VISION finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SUPERBELLA Closed strongly V/TT 1.48.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 11 | 9.4 | 4-3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | METHANE Closed strongly C L Chau · D E Ferraris | C L Chau | D E Ferraris | 8 | 5.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | BRIGHT VISION Led early A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 4 | 3.4 | 5 |
| 4 | 8 | WINNING VOLATILITY Closed strongly B K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 10 | 18.0 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | OWNERS' STAR B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 7 | 6.7 | 6-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | SOCCER MASTER B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 1 | 75.0 | 7 |
| 7 | 9 | PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly XB C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 2 | 6.0 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | DIVINE UNICORN B/TT M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 9 | 16.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | RED ELYSEES B C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 5 | 7.3 | 12 |
| 10 | 4 | HAPPY WIN WIN TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 6 | 38.0 | 15-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | GLENEALY PALS XB/TT V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 3 | 73.0 | 21-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | OWNERS' STAR | 24.0% | 4.16 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | SUPERBELLA | 20.4% | 4.91 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | METHANE | 10.2% | 9.77 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | BRIGHT VISION | 10.1% | 9.94 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | WINNING VOLATILITY | 6.7% | 14.93 | 4 |
| 6 | 4 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 6.4% | 15.74 | 10 |
| 7 | 5 | RED ELYSEES | 5.8% | 17.36 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | DIVINE UNICORN | 5.7% | 17.42 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 5.5% | 18.12 | 7 |
| 10 | 11 | GLENEALY PALS | 3.7% | 26.86 | 11 |
| 11 | 10 | SOCCER MASTER | 1.5% | 65.04 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 94.5
PLACE
1 17.5
3 27.5
6 15
QUINELLA
1,3 261
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 91
1,6 37
3,6 68
FORECAST
3,1 522
TIERCE
3,1,6 1,557
TRIO
1,3,6 202
FIRST 4
1,3,6,8 818
QUARTET
3,1,6,8 19,538
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
6/1 118
6/3 1,168.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 25.5
A3 —