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Happy Valley · 2021-04-08

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.10.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK B 1.10.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · W Y So 1 9.1 2
2 0 STAR OF WUYI B Z Purton · K W Lui 10 2.5 2
3 0 PEAK TO PEAK SR/TT1 J Moreira · F C Lor 6 3.5 2-1/4
4 0 CHATER PINS XB A Badel · D A Hayes 2 27.0 2-1/2
5 0 CHIKORITA XB K Teetan · C W Chang 9 24.0 2-1/2
6 0 ORIENTAL AMIGO B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 8 8.3 2-3/4
7 0 STAR OF RED B2/TT H N Wong · K H Ting 5 111.0 3-1/2
8 0 XPONENTIAL CP C L Chau · D J Whyte 12 17.0 6-1/4
9 0 MULTIPOWER B1/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 4 74.0 6-3/4
10 0 MR LUMIERES V B Shinn · D J Hall 11 21.0 7
11 0 FANTASTIC FABIO M F Poon · C H Yip 3 24.0 7
12 0 GRATWICK TT R Maia · T P Yung 7 18.0 14

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOODLUCK GOODLUCK, ridden by K C Leung and trained by W Y So, won by 2, with STAR OF WUYI second and PEAK TO PEAK third. The 2.5 favourite STAR OF WUYI finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOODLUCK GOODLUCK—2. STAR OF WUYI+2L3. PEAK TO PEAK+2.25L4. CHATER PINS+2.5L5. CHIKORITA+2.5L6. ORIENTAL AMIGO+2.75L7. STAR OF RED+3.5L8. XPONENTIAL+6.25L9. MULTIPOWER+6.75L10. MR LUMIERES+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PEAK TO PEAK (26.7%) finished 3rd — the winner GOODLUCK GOODLUCK was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 PEAK TO PEAK 26.7% 3.75 3
2 0 STAR OF WUYI 19.5% 5.13 2
3 0 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK 13.7% 7.31 1
4 0 CHATER PINS 9.1% 10.99 4
5 0 GRATWICK 7.6% 13.24 12
6 0 FANTASTIC FABIO 6.0% 16.55 11
7 0 XPONENTIAL 5.2% 19.32 8
8 0 CHIKORITA 4.0% 24.95 5
9 0 ORIENTAL AMIGO 3.4% 29.33 6
10 0 MR LUMIERES 2.8% 35.24 10
11 0 STAR OF RED 1.1% 88.08 7
12 0 MULTIPOWER 0.9% 113.09 9
PEAK TO PEAKSTAR OF WUYIGOODLUCK GOODLUCK — wonCHATER PINSGRATWICKFANTASTIC FABIOXPONENTIALCHIKORITAORIENTAL AMIGOMR LUMIERESSTAR OF REDMULTIPOWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 91

PLACE

3 25

4 15

8 12.5

QUINELLA

3,8 127

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 60

3,8 50

4,8 23

FORECAST

3,8 430

TIERCE

3,8,4 991

TRIO

3,4,8 117

FIRST 4

2,3,4,8 521

QUARTET

3,8,4,2 14,548

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 36

5TH DOUBLE

11/3 812

11/8 42.5