Happy Valley · 2021-04-08

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course A 9 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-08 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MASSIVE POCKET, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with WIND N GRASS second and EXPLOSIVE WITNESS third. The 2.6 favourite GRATEFUL HEART finished 8th.

Result

Official · 0.56.47

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	MASSIVE POCKET XB 0.56.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	2	117 lb	8.8	1-1/2
2	4	WIND N GRASS TT A Hamelin · J Size	A Hamelin	J Size	3	120 lb	10.0	1-1/2
3	1	EXPLOSIVE WITNESS A Badel · C Fownes	A Badel	C Fownes	8	133 lb	17.0	2-3/4
4	8	WE THE SOUTH H/XB V Borges · F C Lor	V Borges	F C Lor	7	117 lb	8.3	2-3/4
5	6	VALIANT DREAM H T Mo · K W Lui	H T Mo	K W Lui	1	115 lb	4.6	3-1/4
6	3	SHINING ACE B/TT J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	5	126 lb	10.0	3-1/2
7	7	FLYING GENIUS B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	9	117 lb	8.1	5
8	2	GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	4	132 lb	2.6	7-1/2
9	5	TEAM SPIRIT B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So	M L Yeung	W Y So	6	118 lb	57.0	14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick GRATEFUL HEART (33.5%) finished 8th — the winner MASSIVE POCKET was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	GRATEFUL HEART	33.5%	2.99	8	2.6
2	6	VALIANT DREAM	15.6%	6.40	5	4.6
3	4	WIND N GRASS	12.5%	8.01	2	10.0
4	3	SHINING ACE	10.9%	9.18	6	10.0
5	7	FLYING GENIUS	8.7%	11.48	7	8.1
6	9	MASSIVE POCKET	6.3%	15.76	1	8.8
7	1	EXPLOSIVE WITNESS	6.0%	16.79	3	17.0
8	8	WE THE SOUTH	5.7%	17.59	4	8.3
9	5	TEAM SPIRIT	0.8%	119.74	9	57.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 88

PLACE

1 45.5

4 27

9 29

QUINELLA

4,9 379

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 227.5

1,9 191.5

4,9 118.5

FORECAST

9,4 949

TIERCE

9,4,1 7,922

TRIO

1,4,9 2,386

FIRST 4

1,4,8,9 2,304

QUARTET

9,4,1,8 50,719

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/4 185.5

3/9 837.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 24.5

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