Happy Valley · 2021-04-08
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-08 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KEEP YOU WARM, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K W Lui, won by 3-1/4, with MOMENTUM GALAXY second and LARSON third. The 3.4 favourite SAUL'S SPECIAL finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | KEEP YOU WARM B/XB 0.56.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 8 | 6.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | MOMENTUM GALAXY B A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 4 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | LARSON B-/CP2/TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 7 | 4.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | FABULOUS EIGHT CP-/TT R Maia · P F Yiu | R Maia | P F Yiu | 1 | 5.4 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | DIVINE REGULUS TT C Wong · W Y So | C Wong | W Y So | 5 | 38.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | NORDIC WELLSTAR A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 6 | 7.5 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | SAUL'S SPECIAL B Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 2 | 3.4 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | HEART CONQUERED H1/TT- M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 3 | 12.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | HARMONY AND RICH H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 9 | 11.0 | 5-3/4 |
| — | 5 | HAPPY LAND C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SAUL'S SPECIAL | 21.5% | 4.65 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | LARSON | 16.6% | 6.01 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | KEEP YOU WARM | 13.5% | 7.39 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | NORDIC WELLSTAR | 11.9% | 8.43 | 6 |
| 5 | 4 | HEART CONQUERED | 11.8% | 8.46 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 7.2% | 13.89 | 2 |
| 7 | 8 | FABULOUS EIGHT | 7.0% | 14.19 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | DIVINE REGULUS | 5.3% | 18.87 | 5 |
| 9 | 1 | HARMONY AND RICH | 5.1% | 19.75 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 67
PLACE
3 19.5
7 23
9 48.5
QUINELLA
7,9 454.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 47.5
3,9 107.5
7,9 139.5
FORECAST
7,9 749
TIERCE
7,9,3 3,993
TRIO
3,7,9 749
FIRST 4
3,7,8,9 591
QUARTET
7,9,3,8 16,209
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 18.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
9/7 542
9/9 150