Happy Valley · 2021-04-08
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VIGOR CHAMP, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2, with TELECOM SMART second and UNIVERSAL GO GO third. The 4.7 favourite JOLLY GOOD HEART finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | VIGOR CHAMP B 1.09.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 6 | 5.9 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | TELECOM SMART XB C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 3 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | UNIVERSAL GO GO B/TT J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 11 | 17.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | JOLLY GOOD HEART Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 2 | 4.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 4 | 4.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | HERO STAR TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 8 | 8.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | SUPER COMMANDER TT R Maia · D E Ferraris | R Maia | D E Ferraris | 5 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | TELECOM PUMA CP/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 10 | 19.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | LITTLE PLAYER CP C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 1 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | SEA ELITE H C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 9 | 7.5 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | MULTIPLE STAR TT V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 12 | 146.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 2 | BULLISH BROTHER B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 7 | 64.0 | 12-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JOLLY GOOD HEART | 19.7% | 5.06 | 4 |
| 2 | 12 | JIANGXI STAMINA | 17.4% | 5.75 | 5 |
| 3 | 7 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 12.7% | 7.90 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | VIGOR CHAMP | 11.7% | 8.52 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | SUPER COMMANDER | 9.3% | 10.77 | 7 |
| 6 | 9 | HERO STAR | 8.4% | 11.90 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | SEA ELITE | 5.7% | 17.65 | 10 |
| 8 | 5 | TELECOM SMART | 4.5% | 22.39 | 2 |
| 9 | 8 | LITTLE PLAYER | 4.2% | 23.88 | 9 |
| 10 | 4 | TELECOM PUMA | 3.5% | 28.37 | 8 |
| 11 | 2 | BULLISH BROTHER | 2.4% | 41.06 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | MULTIPLE STAR | 0.5% | 202.30 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 59
PLACE
5 42.5
7 42
11 19
QUINELLA
5,11 382.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 196
5,11 120.5
7,11 120
FORECAST
11,5 825
TIERCE
11,5,7 5,932
TRIO
5,7,11 1,435
FIRST 4
1,5,7,11 1,596
QUARTET
11,5,7,1 38,738
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,9/5,7,11 83,606
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 21.5
4TH DOUBLE
7/5 87.5
7/11 581.5