Happy Valley · 2021-04-08
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-04-08 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WINE AND WINE, ridden by R Maia and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-1/4, with CALIFORNIA CONCORD second and AMAZING NEWS third. The 2.1 favourite KINDA COOL finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WINE AND WINE TT 1.09.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · T P Yung | R Maia | T P Yung | 4 | 26.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 2 | 7.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | AMAZING NEWS TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 14.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | FIGHTING STAR XB/TT A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 10 | 28.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | NORDIC WARRIOR B M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 7 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | AURORA PEGASUS TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 1 | 5.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | KINDA COOL B Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 3 | 2.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | ALCARI V K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 9 | 8.7 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | MEHBOOB B/XB K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 15.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | CAPTAIN TIGER H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 5 | 118.0 | 15-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | AURORA PEGASUS | 36.0% | 2.78 | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | KINDA COOL | 24.6% | 4.06 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD | 8.0% | 12.46 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 7.2% | 13.81 | 5 |
| 5 | 3 | ALCARI | 6.4% | 15.60 | 8 |
| 6 | 7 | FIGHTING STAR | 5.8% | 17.36 | 4 |
| 7 | 9 | MEHBOOB | 4.8% | 20.89 | 9 |
| 8 | 5 | AMAZING NEWS | 4.3% | 23.20 | 3 |
| 9 | 8 | WINE AND WINE | 1.6% | 64.28 | 1 |
| 10 | 4 | CAPTAIN TIGER | 1.3% | 78.70 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 267
PLACE
2 20
5 41
8 56.5
QUINELLA
2,8 861
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 146.5
2,8 203.5
5,8 442
FORECAST
8,2 2,550
TIERCE
8,2,5 17,432
TRIO
2,5,8 4,057
FIRST 4
2,5,7,8 9,907
QUARTET
8,2,5,7 208,315
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 46.5
7TH DOUBLE
5/2 219.5
5/8 3,446.5