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Sha Tin · 2021-04-25

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HALL OF CHAMP Closed strongly TT 1.22.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes 10 8.4 HD
2 0 SUPER MISSION Closed strongly H/CP1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 14 5.3 HD
3 0 BIG TWO Closed strongly H1/XB1 H Bentley · D J Whyte 11 76.0 2-3/4
4 0 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · T P Yung 5 10.0 3-1/4
5 0 ERNEST FEELING Led early CP1/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 13 5.1 4-3/4
6 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER B M F Poon · D J Hall 9 37.0 5
7 0 MISSION SMART Closed strongly CP-/H/B1 J Moreira · F C Lor 1 4.2 5-1/2
8 0 RUBY STARS TT H W Lai · K L Man 7 234.0 6-1/2
9 0 FORTUNE MASTER Closed strongly B1 K Teetan · K W Lui 4 9.1 6-3/4
10 0 AMAZING BOY Closed strongly TT H N Wong · C W Chang 8 108.0 7
11 0 TOP ACCOLADE Closed strongly B-/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 3 204.0 10
12 0 SEA MONARCH H/V/TT2 M L Yeung · W Y So 12 96.0 10-1/4
13 0 ENCHANTING START B1/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 2 5.6 12-3/4
14 0 VIVA POPCORN H/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 6 51.0 14-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-25 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HALL OF CHAMP, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with SUPER MISSION second and BIG TWO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite MISSION SMART finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HALL OF CHAMP—2. SUPER MISSION+0.2L3. BIG TWO+2.75L4. CITY LEGEND+3.25L5. ERNEST FEELING+4.75L6. RED BRICK FIGHTER+5L7. MISSION SMART+5.5L8. RUBY STARS+6.5L9. FORTUNE MASTER+6.75L10. AMAZING BOY+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MISSION SMART (31.9%) finished 7th — the winner HALL OF CHAMP was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MISSION SMART 31.9% 3.13 7
2 0 ENCHANTING START 20.4% 4.90 13
3 0 SUPER MISSION 9.3% 10.72 2
4 0 CITY LEGEND 8.3% 12.11 4
5 0 FORTUNE MASTER 8.0% 12.45 9
6 0 BIG TWO 5.6% 17.90 3
7 0 ERNEST FEELING 5.5% 18.05 5
8 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER 3.7% 26.92 6
9 0 HALL OF CHAMP 2.4% 41.34 1
10 0 VIVA POPCORN 1.5% 68.77 14
11 0 AMAZING BOY 1.2% 81.48 10
12 0 SEA MONARCH 1.1% 94.48 12
13 0 TOP ACCOLADE 0.6% 179.04 11
14 0 RUBY STARS 0.5% 208.47 8
MISSION SMARTENCHANTING STARTSUPER MISSIONCITY LEGENDFORTUNE MASTERBIG TWOERNEST FEELINGRED BRICK FIGHTERHALL OF CHAMP — wonVIVA POPCORNAMAZING BOYSEA MONARCHTOP ACCOLADERUBY STARS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 84

PLACE

1 26

5 197

7 20.5

QUINELLA

1,7 232

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 886

1,7 78

5,7 779.5

FORECAST

1,7 531

TIERCE

1,7,5 28,868

TRIO

1,5,7 5,168

FIRST 4

1,3,5,7 8,101

QUARTET

1,7,5,3 178,148

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 30.5