Sha Tin · 2021-04-25
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-25 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. SERIOUS LIAISON, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with MALDIVES second and ALL FOR ST PAUL'S third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.4 favourite BEAUTY FIT finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SERIOUS LIAISON Closed strongly TT 1.34.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 2 | 9.1 | N |
| 2 | 10 | MALDIVES Closed strongly XB Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 3 | 6.3 | N |
| 3 | 3 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 5 | 8.6 | N |
| 4 | 12 | DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly CP/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 10 | 21.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 7 | MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 8 | 26.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | BEAUTY FIT E C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 12 | 5.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | BEAUTY DAY Led early B/H K H Chan · T P Yung | K H Chan | T P Yung | 11 | 40.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | NEW FUTURE Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 4 | 6.9 | 2 |
| 9 | 8 | ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP2/TT1 J Moreira · W Y So | J Moreira | W Y So | 9 | 6.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | PERFECT TO GREAT V K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 7 | 8.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | KYRUS UNICORN R Maia · C W Chang | R Maia | C W Chang | 6 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 9 | FLASH FAMOUS TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 1 | 69.0 | 10-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | MALDIVES | 32.0% | 3.13 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | PERFECT TO GREAT | 12.5% | 8.00 | 10 |
| 3 | 3 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 10.0% | 9.99 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | BEAUTY FIT | 8.9% | 11.23 | 6 |
| 5 | 8 | ENTRUSTED | 6.8% | 14.72 | 9 |
| 6 | 11 | NEW FUTURE | 6.6% | 15.22 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 | SERIOUS LIAISON | 6.1% | 16.44 | 1 |
| 8 | 12 | DECISIVE ACTION | 4.3% | 23.52 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | KYRUS UNICORN | 4.2% | 23.61 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | FLASH FAMOUS | 3.9% | 25.64 | 12 |
| 11 | 6 | BEAUTY DAY | 3.1% | 32.22 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | MEANINGFUL STAR | 1.6% | 60.68 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 91.5
PLACE
3 27.5
5 30.5
10 22.5
QUINELLA
5,10 287
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 131.5
3,10 82.5
5,10 97.5
FORECAST
5,10 664
TIERCE
5,10,3 4,026
TRIO
3,5,10 763
FIRST 4
3,5,10,12 2,981
QUARTET
5,10,3,12 54,903
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,9/3,5,10 13,268
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 18.5
3RD DOUBLE
9/5 1,198
9/10 252.5