Sha Tin · 2021-04-25
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-25 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COURIER WONDER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 2, with LUCKY PATCH second and WINNING DREAMER third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | COURIER WONDER 1.08.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 8 | 1.7 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | LUCKY PATCH B/H Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 12 | 5.4 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | WINNING DREAMER TT1 C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 5 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 11 | 41.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | DUKE WAI B/H K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 6.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 13 | 47.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | MR CROISSANT CP T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 4 | 31.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 10 | WIND N GRASS TT H Bentley · J Size | H Bentley | J Size | 7 | 25.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 13 | HONG KONG BET TT V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 1 | 41.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | VICTORIAM M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 14 | 77.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 9 | 48.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 9 | RACING FIGHTER B/TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 3 | 146.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 6 | SEATTLE CHOICE A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 10 | 73.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 14 | YOUNG LEGEND H/TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 6 | 114.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | COURIER WONDER | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | LUCKY PATCH | 13.4% | 7.46 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | DUKE WAI | 6.5% | 15.41 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | SEATTLE CHOICE | 3.5% | 28.40 | 13 |
| 5 | 10 | WIND N GRASS | 3.3% | 30.04 | 8 |
| 6 | 4 | CALIFORNIA RAD | 3.0% | 33.44 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | WINNING DREAMER | 2.9% | 34.41 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | HIGHLY PROACTIVE | 2.7% | 37.45 | 6 |
| 9 | 14 | YOUNG LEGEND | 2.2% | 45.25 | 14 |
| 10 | 12 | VICTORIAM | 2.2% | 46.36 | 10 |
| 11 | 3 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 2.0% | 51.15 | 11 |
| 12 | 13 | HONG KONG BET | 1.6% | 63.51 | 9 |
| 13 | 9 | RACING FIGHTER | 1.5% | 65.60 | 12 |
| 14 | 8 | MR CROISSANT | 1.1% | 88.85 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 17
PLACE
2 26
5 16.5
7 10.5
QUINELLA
5,7 39
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 64.5
2,7 35
5,7 19.5
FORECAST
7,5 73
TIERCE
7,5,2 269
TRIO
2,5,7 75
FIRST 4
2,4,5,7 444
QUARTET
7,5,2,4 3,513
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 15
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,10,11/2,5,7 1,844
9TH DOUBLE
11/5 66
11/7 74.5
SIX UP
4,6/2,9/1,5/1,7/2,11/5,7 1,729
6/2/1/7/11/7 32,960
4 [C Y Ho] —
TREBLE
7/11/5 330
7/11/7 590