Sha Tin · 2021-04-25
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-25 was Group 1 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. LOVES ONLY YOU, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by Y Yahagi, won by 3/4, with GLORY VASE second and DARING TACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite DARING TACT finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LOVES ONLY YOU Closed strongly 2.01.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · Y Yahagi | C Y Ho | Y Yahagi | 5 | 5.8 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | GLORY VASE Closed strongly XB K Teetan · T Ozeki | K Teetan | T Ozeki | 7 | 4.7 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | DARING TACT K Matsuyama · H Sugiyama | K Matsuyama | H Sugiyama | 1 | 2.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | KISEKI Closed strongly C Schofield · Y Tsujino | C Schofield | Y Tsujino | 3 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | EXULTANT XB/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 2 | 4.7 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | GLORIOUS DRAGON Closed strongly TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 6 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | TIME WARP Led early TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 4 | 27.0 | 5-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | EXULTANT | 50.5% | 1.98 | 5 |
| 2 | 1 | GLORY VASE | 14.7% | 6.80 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | GLORIOUS DRAGON | 11.0% | 9.08 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | TIME WARP | 8.0% | 12.47 | 7 |
| 5 | 6 | DARING TACT | 6.6% | 15.23 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | LOVES ONLY YOU | 5.6% | 17.93 | 1 |
| 7 | 4 | KISEKI | 3.6% | 28.04 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 58
PLACE
1 14
6 14.5
7 16.5
QUINELLA
1,7 94
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 27.5
1,7 34.5
6,7 27.5
FORECAST
7,1 181
TIERCE
7,1,6 571
TRIO
1,6,7 81
FIRST 4
1,4,6,7 67
QUARTET
7,1,6,4 1,806
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 18
7TH DOUBLE
1/1 12
1/7 53.5