Sha Tin · 2021-04-25

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-04-25 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WAR OF COURAGE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with FANTASTIC WAY second and SUNSET WATCH third. The 1.7 favourite FANTASTIC WAY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.12

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	WAR OF COURAGE B 1.09.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man	M Chadwick	K L Man	8	117 lb	17.0	1/2
2	1	FANTASTIC WAY J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	9	133 lb	1.7	1/2
3	2	SUNSET WATCH P- A Badel · K W Lui	A Badel	K W Lui	7	133 lb	24.0	1-1/4
4	11	HARDLY SWEARS M L Yeung · K H Ting	M L Yeung	K H Ting	2	114 lb	43.0	1-1/4
5	3	YO BEAUTY CP1/H1/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	5	130 lb	28.0	1-3/4
6	7	LIKE THAT V K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	10	119 lb	9.9	2-3/4
7	5	EXCELLENT DADDY C Schofield · T P Yung	C Schofield	T P Yung	11	122 lb	52.0	3-1/4
8	10	TRADER CP K Teetan · D A Hayes	K Teetan	D A Hayes	4	116 lb	3.0	4-3/4
9	6	SOULMATE H Bentley · P F Yiu	H Bentley	P F Yiu	6	122 lb	187.0	4-3/4
10	8	PASSING FASHION H M F Poon · C H Yip	M F Poon	C H Yip	3	116 lb	284.0	10-3/4
11	4	OUR CLASS ACT H W Lai · Y S Tsui	H W Lai	Y S Tsui	1	123 lb	273.0	12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick FANTASTIC WAY (41.2%) finished 2nd — the winner WAR OF COURAGE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	FANTASTIC WAY	41.2%	2.43	2	1.7
2	10	TRADER	38.9%	2.57	8	3.0
3	7	LIKE THAT	6.6%	15.25	6	9.9
4	9	WAR OF COURAGE	3.7%	27.33	1	17.0
5	2	SUNSET WATCH	3.6%	28.10	3	24.0
6	3	YO BEAUTY	1.6%	63.67	5	28.0
7	5	EXCELLENT DADDY	1.5%	67.10	7	52.0
8	11	HARDLY SWEARS	1.4%	71.31	4	43.0
9	6	SOULMATE	0.7%	142.29	9	187.0
10	4	OUR CLASS ACT	0.6%	167.41	11	273.0
11	8	PASSING FASHION	0.3%	317.04	10	284.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 172.5

PLACE

1 10.1

2 33

9 29.5

QUINELLA

1,9 122

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 58

1,9 43

2,9 145.5

FORECAST

9,1 518

TIERCE

9,1,2 3,290

TRIO

1,2,9 314

FIRST 4

1,2,9,11 732

QUARTET

9,1,2,11 28,848

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

13/1 37

13/9 934

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 20

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