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Sha Tin · 2021-05-08

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly SR-/B1 1.22.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 6 2.4 N
2 0 SPEEDY DRAGON Closed strongly B2/TT1 H W Lai · K L Man 1 17.0 N
3 0 BIG BANG BONG Closed strongly B T Piccone · C W Chang 2 13.0 1-3/4
4 0 JOY MASTER Closed strongly V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 21.0 2
5 0 SPICY GRILL Closed strongly B/H/TT J Moreira · K W Lui 4 3.3 2-1/2
6 0 HAPPY HOUR Closed strongly E/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 3 26.0 2-3/4
7 0 ALLOY KING Closed strongly B A Hamelin · K H Ting 12 11.0 3-3/4
8 0 MOON PEAKS B/H H Bentley · Y S Tsui 7 17.0 4
9 0 AMAZING LUCK Closed strongly B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 9 21.0 4
10 0 MANY GAINS TT1 V Borges · L Ho 14 82.0 8-1/4
11 0 MONEYMORE CP M L Yeung · D A Hayes 11 75.0 8-1/4
12 0 LUCKY TURBO B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 10 138.0 8-1/2
13 0 GO BALLISTIC B-/SR2/TT C Schofield · D E Ferraris 13 23.0 22
14 0 HAPPY RUBY Led early XB/TT C Wong · A T Millard 8 150.0 23-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-08 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KUNG FU TEA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with SPEEDY DRAGON second and BIG BANG BONG third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KUNG FU TEA—2. SPEEDY DRAGON+0.05L3. BIG BANG BONG+1.75L4. JOY MASTER+2L5. SPICY GRILL+2.5L6. HAPPY HOUR+2.75L7. ALLOY KING+3.75L8. MOON PEAKS+4L9. AMAZING LUCK+4L10. MANY GAINS+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KUNG FU TEA (35.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 KUNG FU TEA 35.2% 2.84 1
2 0 SPICY GRILL 25.4% 3.94 5
3 0 JOY MASTER 6.8% 14.63 4
4 0 HAPPY HOUR 6.2% 16.13 6
5 0 MOON PEAKS 4.1% 24.43 8
6 0 ALLOY KING 3.7% 26.80 7
7 0 SPEEDY DRAGON 3.6% 27.56 2
8 0 AMAZING LUCK 2.8% 36.23 9
9 0 GO BALLISTIC 2.7% 36.97 13
10 0 MANY GAINS 2.7% 37.50 10
11 0 BIG BANG BONG 2.4% 41.21 3
12 0 MONEYMORE 1.9% 51.33 11
13 0 LUCKY TURBO 1.6% 60.86 12
14 0 HAPPY RUBY 0.8% 130.28 14
KUNG FU TEA — wonSPICY GRILLJOY MASTERHAPPY HOURMOON PEAKSALLOY KINGSPEEDY DRAGONAMAZING LUCKGO BALLISTICMANY GAINSBIG BANG BONGMONEYMORELUCKY TURBOHAPPY RUBY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 24

PLACE

1 13

6 29.5

12 45

QUINELLA

1,12 242

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 62

1,12 78.5

6,12 302

FORECAST

1,12 471

TIERCE

1,12,6 3,179

TRIO

1,6,12 711

FIRST 4

1,5,6,12 2,870

QUARTET

1,12,6,5 39,965

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,7/1,6,12 18,674

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 14

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE

1/1 303.5

1/12 425