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Sha Tin · 2021-05-08

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-08 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KWAI CHUNG ELITE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with GOLDEN MISSION second and ALLOY STAR third. The 4.4 favourite WONDER BRAHMA finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.09.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 KWAI CHUNG ELITE B 1.09.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K H Ting 1 27.0 SH
2 8 GOLDEN MISSION B T Piccone · C W Chang 9 10.0 SH
3 5 ALLOY STAR B Z Purton · T P Yung 2 4.5 3/4
4 7 VIVA MAMA TT M F Poon · L Ho 6 14.0 1
5 11 ONE STEP AHEAD B/TT J Moreira · P O'Sullivan 8 8.0 1-1/4
6 1 UNIVERSAL CROWN B/XB/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte 12 9.8 1-3/4
7 4 REGENCY POET B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 10 14.0 2-1/4
8 6 FOX CHEUNGER B/TT K C Leung · K W Lui 5 38.0 3-1/4
9 3 ONE HAPPY STAR K H Chan · C H Yip 11 9.3 3-1/2
10 12 WONDER BRAHMA B/H K Teetan · C Fownes 4 4.4 5-1/4
11 9 SHANGHAI POWER H/B1 C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 3 8.6 7
12 2 ANONYMA V Borges · D E Ferraris 7 46.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KWAI CHUNG ELITE2. GOLDEN MISSION+0.1L3. ALLOY STAR+0.75L4. VIVA MAMA+1L5. ONE STEP AHEAD+1.25L6. UNIVERSAL CROWN+1.75L7. REGENCY POET+2.25L8. FOX CHEUNGER+3.25L9. ONE HAPPY STAR+3.5L10. WONDER BRAHMA+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick ALLOY STAR (32.3%) finished 3rd — the winner KWAI CHUNG ELITE was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 ALLOY STAR 32.3% 3.09 3
2 11 ONE STEP AHEAD 15.0% 6.67 5
3 12 WONDER BRAHMA 10.0% 10.00 10
4 4 REGENCY POET 6.2% 16.19 7
5 1 UNIVERSAL CROWN 5.9% 16.81 6
6 8 GOLDEN MISSION 5.9% 17.00 2
7 9 SHANGHAI POWER 5.9% 17.02 11
8 7 VIVA MAMA 5.7% 17.58 4
9 3 ONE HAPPY STAR 4.6% 21.84 9
10 10 KWAI CHUNG ELITE 3.1% 32.15 1
11 6 FOX CHEUNGER 3.0% 33.29 8
12 2 ANONYMA 2.4% 41.33 12
ALLOY STARONE STEP AHEADWONDER BRAHMAREGENCY POETUNIVERSAL CROWNGOLDEN MISSIONSHANGHAI POWERVIVA MAMAONE HAPPY STARKWAI CHUNG ELITE — wonFOX CHEUNGERANONYMA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 271

PLACE

5 17.5

8 33.5

10 74

QUINELLA

8,10 1,393.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 84

5,10 184.5

8,10 373.5

FORECAST

10,8 4,695

TIERCE

10,8,5 16,381

TRIO

5,8,10 1,220

FIRST 4

5,7,8,10 6,937

QUARTET

10,8,5,7 243,447

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/8 45.5

1/10 657

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 22.5

A2