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Sha Tin · 2021-05-08

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ELIGERE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-3/4, with ZACIAN second and SUNDAY BETTING third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 ELIGERE B 1.09.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · Y S Tsui 6 2.4 1-3/4
2 10 ZACIAN M Chadwick · A T Millard 10 14.0 1-3/4
3 8 SUNDAY BETTING TT J Moreira · C Fownes 4 21.0 2-1/2
4 4 GO GO SIXTEEN K Teetan · K W Lui 9 7.4 3-1/2
5 3 MARADO R Maia · P O'Sullivan 11 15.0 3-1/2
6 2 CHIU CHOW BROTHER CP-/B1 A Badel · T P Yung 2 7.9 3-3/4
7 5 LUCKY RUBY B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 5.9 4-1/4
8 6 LITTLE PLAYER CP C Schofield · D A Hayes 5 11.0 4-1/4
9 11 MULTIPOWER B/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 7 155.0 6
10 9 FANTASTIC FABIO C Wong · C H Yip 1 19.0 6-1/2
11 12 THE ELITES TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 12 140.0 8-1/4
12 7 GLADSOME RYDER B1/TT M F Poon · R Gibson 8 32.0 14-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ELIGERE2. ZACIAN+1.75L3. SUNDAY BETTING+2.5L4. GO GO SIXTEEN+3.5L5. MARADO+3.5L6. CHIU CHOW BROTHER+3.75L7. LUCKY RUBY+4.25L8. LITTLE PLAYER+4.25L9. MULTIPOWER+6L10. FANTASTIC FABIO+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LUCKY RUBY (24.8%) finished 7th — the winner ELIGERE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 LUCKY RUBY 24.8% 4.03 7
2 1 ELIGERE 19.1% 5.24 1
3 2 CHIU CHOW BROTHER 12.5% 8.00 6
4 8 SUNDAY BETTING 7.9% 12.59 3
5 6 LITTLE PLAYER 7.9% 12.66 8
6 9 FANTASTIC FABIO 7.3% 13.66 10
7 4 GO GO SIXTEEN 7.2% 13.90 4
8 7 GLADSOME RYDER 4.2% 23.88 12
9 10 ZACIAN 3.5% 28.19 2
10 3 MARADO 2.9% 34.63 5
11 12 THE ELITES 1.5% 68.41 11
12 11 MULTIPOWER 1.2% 84.95 9
LUCKY RUBYELIGERE — wonCHIU CHOW BROTHERSUNDAY BETTINGLITTLE PLAYERFANTASTIC FABIOGO GO SIXTEENGLADSOME RYDERZACIANMARADOTHE ELITESMULTIPOWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 24

PLACE

1 13.5

8 54

10 36.5

QUINELLA

1,10 187.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 82.5

1,10 67.5

8,10 349

FORECAST

1,10 269

TIERCE

1,10,8 3,098

TRIO

1,8,10 909

FIRST 4

1,4,8,10 1,787

QUARTET

1,10,8,4 30,719

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 17

A3