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Sha Tin · 2021-05-08

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course C 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-08 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RED ELYSEES, ridden by H Bentley and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with SWOT TROOPERS WIND second and STUNNING IMPACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite EL JEFE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.47.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B 1.47.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · K L Man 2 16.0 1-1/4
2 11 SWOT TROOPERS WIND Closed strongly B K C Leung · D J Hall 1 5.2 1-1/4
3 10 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly CP-/B2 M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 13 21.0 1-1/4
4 1 AWE Closed strongly CP-/XB- Z Purton · D A Hayes 3 4.5 3
5 3 EL JEFE Closed strongly XB/TT J Moreira · C H Yip 10 3.8 4-1/2
6 12 CHEEKY PRAWN B/E V Borges · J Size 14 124.0 6
7 5 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT H W Lai · W Y So 9 68.0 6-1/2
8 4 NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 11 56.0 6-3/4
9 8 YES WE CAN TT C Schofield · T P Yung 12 14.0 7-1/4
10 14 EXALTATION Closed strongly V/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 7 58.0 7-1/2
11 2 FULL POWER Led early B/XB C L Chau · R Gibson 5 14.0 8-1/4
12 13 DAILY CHARM B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 8 14.0 8-3/4
13 6 SUPER FAST XB T Piccone · K W Lui 6 7.1 11-1/2
14 9 STRATHMARTINE TT1 K Teetan · A T Millard 4 48.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED ELYSEES2. SWOT TROOPERS WIND+1.25L3. STUNNING IMPACT+1.25L4. AWE+3L5. EL JEFE+4.5L6. CHEEKY PRAWN+6L7. ZHAN JIANG ROCKS+6.5L8. NUNCHUKS+6.75L9. YES WE CAN+7.25L10. EXALTATION+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick AWE (19.0%) finished 4th — the winner RED ELYSEES was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 AWE 19.0% 5.26 4
2 11 SWOT TROOPERS WIND 13.8% 7.27 2
3 3 EL JEFE 13.0% 7.69 5
4 6 SUPER FAST 8.7% 11.54 13
5 8 YES WE CAN 7.5% 13.38 9
6 13 DAILY CHARM 7.1% 14.06 12
7 4 NUNCHUKS 6.6% 15.14 8
8 10 STUNNING IMPACT 6.2% 16.13 3
9 7 RED ELYSEES 5.3% 18.70 1
10 2 FULL POWER 4.8% 20.74 11
11 12 CHEEKY PRAWN 2.3% 42.74 6
12 14 EXALTATION 2.1% 47.14 10
13 5 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS 1.9% 51.68 7
14 9 STRATHMARTINE 1.6% 62.04 14
AWESWOT TROOPERS WINDEL JEFESUPER FASTYES WE CANDAILY CHARMNUNCHUKSSTUNNING IMPACTRED ELYSEES — wonFULL POWERCHEEKY PRAWNEXALTATIONZHAN JIANG ROCKSSTRATHMARTINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 167

PLACE

7 44

10 60

11 18.5

QUINELLA

7,11 353

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 429.5

7,11 126

10,11 169

FORECAST

7,11 1,196

TIERCE

7,11,10 15,355

TRIO

7,10,11 2,169

FIRST 4

1,7,10,11 2,121

QUARTET

7,11,10,1 78,791

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 31

A2

A1

4TH DOUBLE

1/7 433.5

1/11 46