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Sha Tin · 2021-05-08

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.47.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B 1.47.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · K L Man 2 16.0 1-1/4
2 0 SWOT TROOPERS WIND Closed strongly B K C Leung · D J Hall 1 5.2 1-1/4
3 0 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly CP-/B2 M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 13 21.0 1-1/4
4 0 AWE Closed strongly CP-/XB- Z Purton · D A Hayes 3 4.5 3
5 0 EL JEFE Closed strongly XB/TT J Moreira · C H Yip 10 3.8 4-1/2
6 0 CHEEKY PRAWN B/E V Borges · J Size 14 124.0 6
7 0 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT H W Lai · W Y So 9 68.0 6-1/2
8 0 NUNCHUKS Closed strongly TT K H Chan · C Fownes 11 56.0 6-3/4
9 0 YES WE CAN TT C Schofield · T P Yung 12 14.0 7-1/4
10 0 EXALTATION Closed strongly V/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 7 58.0 7-1/2
11 0 FULL POWER Led early B/XB C L Chau · R Gibson 5 14.0 8-1/4
12 0 DAILY CHARM B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum 8 14.0 8-3/4
13 0 SUPER FAST XB T Piccone · K W Lui 6 7.1 11-1/2
14 0 STRATHMARTINE TT1 K Teetan · A T Millard 4 48.0 14-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-08 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RED ELYSEES, ridden by H Bentley and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with SWOT TROOPERS WIND second and STUNNING IMPACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite EL JEFE finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED ELYSEES—2. SWOT TROOPERS WIND+1.25L3. STUNNING IMPACT+1.25L4. AWE+3L5. EL JEFE+4.5L6. CHEEKY PRAWN+6L7. ZHAN JIANG ROCKS+6.5L8. NUNCHUKS+6.75L9. YES WE CAN+7.25L10. EXALTATION+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick AWE (19.0%) finished 4th — the winner RED ELYSEES was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 AWE 19.0% 5.26 4
2 0 SWOT TROOPERS WIND 13.8% 7.27 2
3 0 EL JEFE 13.0% 7.69 5
4 0 SUPER FAST 8.7% 11.54 13
5 0 YES WE CAN 7.5% 13.38 9
6 0 DAILY CHARM 7.1% 14.06 12
7 0 NUNCHUKS 6.6% 15.14 8
8 0 STUNNING IMPACT 6.2% 16.13 3
9 0 RED ELYSEES 5.3% 18.70 1
10 0 FULL POWER 4.8% 20.74 11
11 0 CHEEKY PRAWN 2.3% 42.74 6
12 0 EXALTATION 2.1% 47.14 10
13 0 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS 1.9% 51.68 7
14 0 STRATHMARTINE 1.6% 62.04 14
AWESWOT TROOPERS WINDEL JEFESUPER FASTYES WE CANDAILY CHARMNUNCHUKSSTUNNING IMPACTRED ELYSEES — wonFULL POWERCHEEKY PRAWNEXALTATIONZHAN JIANG ROCKSSTRATHMARTINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 167

PLACE

7 44

10 60

11 18.5

QUINELLA

7,11 353

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 429.5

7,11 126

10,11 169

FORECAST

7,11 1,196

TIERCE

7,11,10 15,355

TRIO

7,10,11 2,169

FIRST 4

1,7,10,11 2,121

QUARTET

7,11,10,1 78,791

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 31

A1 —

4TH DOUBLE

1/7 433.5

1/11 46