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Sha Tin · 2021-05-08

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.38
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUPER TEN Closed strongly CP/XB 1.21.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D J Whyte 12 6.5 NOSE
2 0 HALL OF CHAMP Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 5 9.7 NOSE
3 0 MERIDIAN GENIUS Closed strongly M F Poon · A T Millard 1 42.0 HD
4 0 GALLANT EXPRESS Closed strongly E J Moreira · J Size 4 1.8 1/2
5 0 TRUE LEGEND Led early B K Teetan · F C Lor 10 8.3 2-1/2
6 0 YO BEAUTY CP/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 7 20.0 2-3/4
7 0 PERFECT PAIR SR C Y Ho · K H Ting 9 7.4 2-3/4
8 0 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly A Hamelin · W Y So 2 45.0 4-1/4
9 0 SMART LEADER Closed strongly B/TT H W Lai · W Y So 6 197.0 4-1/2
10 0 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly B H Bentley · K W Lui 8 28.0 7-1/4
11 0 SOULMATE TT1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 3 42.0 8
12 0 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B R Maia · C H Yip 11 115.0 15

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-08 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPER TEN, ridden by A Badel and trained by D J Whyte, won by NOSE, with HALL OF CHAMP second and MERIDIAN GENIUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite GALLANT EXPRESS finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER TEN—2. HALL OF CHAMP+0.05L3. MERIDIAN GENIUS+0.2L4. GALLANT EXPRESS+0.5L5. TRUE LEGEND+2.5L6. YO BEAUTY+2.75L7. PERFECT PAIR+2.75L8. TIANCHI MONSTER+4.25L9. SMART LEADER+4.5L10. NOBLE STEED+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GALLANT EXPRESS (49.5%) finished 4th — the winner SUPER TEN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GALLANT EXPRESS 49.5% 2.02 4
2 0 SUPER TEN 14.2% 7.07 1
3 0 HALL OF CHAMP 8.3% 11.99 2
4 0 TRUE LEGEND 7.3% 13.75 5
5 0 YO BEAUTY 6.8% 14.71 6
6 0 PERFECT PAIR 4.7% 21.35 7
7 0 MERIDIAN GENIUS 3.1% 32.64 3
8 0 NOBLE STEED 2.0% 49.48 10
9 0 TIANCHI MONSTER 1.7% 59.13 8
10 0 SOULMATE 1.0% 104.42 11
11 0 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 0.8% 125.80 12
12 0 SMART LEADER 0.7% 143.03 9
GALLANT EXPRESSSUPER TEN — wonHALL OF CHAMPTRUE LEGENDYO BEAUTYPERFECT PAIRMERIDIAN GENIUSNOBLE STEEDTIANCHI MONSTERSOULMATEHEAVENLY THOUGHTSMART LEADER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 65

PLACE

6 22

10 20

11 79

QUINELLA

6,10 227

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 64.5

6,11 264

10,11 241.5

FORECAST

10,6 543

TIERCE

10,6,11 8,330

TRIO

6,10,11 2,068

FIRST 4

6,10,11,12 646

QUARTET

10,6,11,12 26,115

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 37

8TH DOUBLE

9/6 450

9/10 1,992