Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-05-08

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-05-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FIRST RESPONDER, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with SEASONS BLISS second and PEGASUS GLORY third. The 2.1 favourite SEASONS BLISS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 FIRST RESPONDER B 1.08.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 10.0 3/4
2 7 SEASONS BLISS C Schofield · K H Ting 2 2.1 3/4
3 2 PEGASUS GLORY B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 3 5.4 1
4 3 WINNING BREW CP C Y Ho · F C Lor 1 12.0 2-1/2
5 4 DIVINE REGULUS TT A Badel · W Y So 4 9.9 3-1/4
6 6 CORDYCEPS KING TT M F Poon · C S Shum 9 77.0 3-3/4
7 9 TELECOM PUMA XB-/TT2 T Piccone · C Fownes 8 32.0 4-1/2
8 10 CORDYCEPS ONE H A Hamelin · K W Lui 5 80.0 5-1/2
9 12 GOOD LUCK MONEY V Borges · C H Yip 10 129.0 6
10 5 AMAZEMENT J Moreira · J Size 7 19.0 6-1/2
11 8 SHENRON XB-/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 6 7.0 13-1/2
12 11 GALLANT CAVALIER B H Bentley · A T Millard 12 36.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIRST RESPONDER2. SEASONS BLISS+0.75L3. PEGASUS GLORY+1L4. WINNING BREW+2.5L5. DIVINE REGULUS+3.25L6. CORDYCEPS KING+3.75L7. TELECOM PUMA+4.5L8. CORDYCEPS ONE+5.5L9. GOOD LUCK MONEY+6L10. AMAZEMENT+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SEASONS BLISS (17.2%) finished 2nd — the winner FIRST RESPONDER was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SEASONS BLISS 17.2% 5.80 2
2 5 AMAZEMENT 16.3% 6.15 10
3 8 SHENRON 16.0% 6.26 11
4 2 PEGASUS GLORY 16.0% 6.26 3
5 3 WINNING BREW 9.6% 10.37 4
6 4 DIVINE REGULUS 7.9% 12.63 5
7 9 TELECOM PUMA 5.4% 18.53 7
8 11 GALLANT CAVALIER 3.6% 27.59 12
9 1 FIRST RESPONDER 3.6% 27.85 1
10 10 CORDYCEPS ONE 1.7% 59.56 8
11 12 GOOD LUCK MONEY 1.5% 66.68 9
12 6 CORDYCEPS KING 1.2% 83.54 6
SEASONS BLISSAMAZEMENTSHENRONPEGASUS GLORYWINNING BREWDIVINE REGULUSTELECOM PUMAGALLANT CAVALIERFIRST RESPONDER — wonCORDYCEPS ONEGOOD LUCK MONEYCORDYCEPS KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 107.5

PLACE

1 26.5

2 17.5

7 12.5

QUINELLA

1,7 98.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 75.5

1,7 40.5

2,7 23.5

FORECAST

1,7 381

TIERCE

1,7,2 1,076

TRIO

1,2,7 160

FIRST 4

1,2,3,7 273

QUARTET

1,7,2,3 8,671

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

10/1 3,556

10/7 157.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 36.5

A1