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Happy Valley · 2021-06-23

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 NOBLE DESIRE SR/XB 1.09.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 4 4.2 1/2
2 0 BEAUTY CHEERS E-/P- C Schofield · J Size 1 7.1 1/2
3 0 TELECOM ROCKET B M F Poon · Y S Tsui 3 4.7 1-1/4
4 0 CHIRON CP-/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 5 16.0 2-1/2
5 0 FLAMING PASSION CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 12 6.0 2-3/4
6 0 BALTIC WHISPER TT Z Purton · C S Shum 7 15.0 3-1/4
7 0 GOOD SHOT XB J Moreira · D J Hall 9 10.0 3-1/2
8 0 THE ANOMALY M L Yeung · K H Ting 10 24.0 4
9 0 HAPPY TIME TT C Y Ho · W Y So 11 17.0 6-1/4
10 0 TELECOM CHEETAH B1/TT T Piccone · C H Yip 2 50.0 7
11 0 BULLISH BROTHER B/TT H N Wong · A S Cruz 8 38.0 8-1/2
12 0 BRANDING POWER TT A Badel · K W Lui 6 10.0 11-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-06-23 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NOBLE DESIRE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with BEAUTY CHEERS second and TELECOM ROCKET third. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NOBLE DESIRE—2. BEAUTY CHEERS+0.5L3. TELECOM ROCKET+1.25L4. CHIRON+2.5L5. FLAMING PASSION+2.75L6. BALTIC WHISPER+3.25L7. GOOD SHOT+3.5L8. THE ANOMALY+4L9. HAPPY TIME+6.25L10. TELECOM CHEETAH+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GOOD SHOT (18.2%) finished 7th — the winner NOBLE DESIRE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GOOD SHOT 18.2% 5.49 7
2 0 BALTIC WHISPER 13.9% 7.22 6
3 0 NOBLE DESIRE 11.5% 8.67 1
4 0 BEAUTY CHEERS 10.8% 9.28 2
5 0 FLAMING PASSION 10.7% 9.31 5
6 0 BRANDING POWER 10.6% 9.47 12
7 0 TELECOM ROCKET 6.5% 15.42 3
8 0 CHIRON 5.9% 17.01 4
9 0 THE ANOMALY 5.6% 17.97 8
10 0 HAPPY TIME 4.0% 24.85 9
11 0 BULLISH BROTHER 1.5% 67.24 11
12 0 TELECOM CHEETAH 0.9% 113.99 10
GOOD SHOTBALTIC WHISPERNOBLE DESIRE — wonBEAUTY CHEERSFLAMING PASSIONBRANDING POWERTELECOM ROCKETCHIRONTHE ANOMALYHAPPY TIMEBULLISH BROTHERTELECOM CHEETAH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 42

PLACE

1 17.5

9 15

10 24.5

QUINELLA

9,10 132.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 38

1,10 69

9,10 49.5

FORECAST

9,10 224

TIERCE

9,10,1 1,023

TRIO

1,9,10 240

FIRST 4

1,7,9,10 645

QUARTET

9,10,1,7 8,527

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,7/1,9,10 4,357

3 PICK 1

A1 22

A3 —

A2 —

4TH DOUBLE

3/9 319.5

3/10 103