Sha Tin · 2021-07-04

Race 1

Griffin GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-04 was Griffin over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE, ridden by N Callan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2-1/4, with TORONADO PHANTOM second and SHINING RED third. The 2.4 favourite TORONADO PHANTOM finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.47

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	CALIFORNIA SPANGLE TT 1.08.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · A S Cruz	N Callan	A S Cruz	7	133 lb	2.5	2-1/4
2	2	TORONADO PHANTOM TT B Shinn · J Size	B Shinn	J Size	4	133 lb	2.4	2-1/4
3	6	SHINING RED C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	1	121 lb	23.0	2-1/2
4	3	TURBO POWER Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	2	133 lb	4.7	2-3/4
5	9	SMART IDEA TT K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	8	121 lb	20.0	5-1/4
6	8	RED BRICK GLORY R Maia · P F Yiu	R Maia	P F Yiu	3	121 lb	90.0	8
7	7	MIRACLE VICTORY J Moreira · D A Hayes	J Moreira	D A Hayes	6	121 lb	19.0	10-1/4
8	5	GREAT KING SR/TT K C Leung · C H Yip	K C Leung	C H Yip	9	126 lb	22.0	15-1/4
9	4	BIG BIG WIN B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung	H Bentley	T P Yung	5	126 lb	147.0	42

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick CALIFORNIA SPANGLE (23.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	CALIFORNIA SPANGLE	23.7%	4.23	1	2.5
2	3	TURBO POWER	21.1%	4.73	4	4.7
3	7	MIRACLE VICTORY	17.6%	5.67	7	19.0
4	2	TORONADO PHANTOM	13.6%	7.35	2	2.4
5	9	SMART IDEA	10.2%	9.82	5	20.0
6	6	SHINING RED	9.8%	10.21	3	23.0
7	5	GREAT KING	2.3%	43.10	8	22.0
8	8	RED BRICK GLORY	1.1%	95.04	6	90.0
9	4	BIG BIG WIN	0.6%	159.20	9	147.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 25.5

PLACE

1 10.5

2 12.5

6 49.5

QUINELLA

1,2 32.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 16

1,6 99.5

2,6 86.5

FORECAST

1,2 72

TIERCE

1,2,6 999

TRIO

1,2,6 274

FIRST 4

1,2,3,6 86

QUARTET

1,2,6,3 2,152

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 12.5

A2 —

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99