Sha Tin · 2021-07-04

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-04 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BREEZE OF SPRING, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with FOX CHEUNGER second and GOLDEN FOUR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.56

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	BREEZE OF SPRING Closed strongly TT 1.21.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	9	128 lb	2.9	1-1/4
2	10	FOX CHEUNGER Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	6	121 lb	4.3	1-1/4
3	2	GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly P N Callan · C W Chang	N Callan	C W Chang	13	128 lb	11.0	3-1/4
4	4	THIS IS CHARISMA Closed strongly B Z Purton · D J Hall	Z Purton	D J Hall	14	128 lb	10.0	3-1/2
5	9	ATHENA TT- T Piccone · C H Yip	T Piccone	C H Yip	4	121 lb	76.0	3-1/2
6	3	STAR OF RED B/TT R Maia · K H Ting	R Maia	K H Ting	1	128 lb	46.0	4
7	8	OURGOLDENRULES Closed strongly B-/XB/SR1 C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	8	119 lb	37.0	5-3/4
8	7	ANONYMA Led early H N Wong · D E Ferraris	H N Wong	D E Ferraris	7	121 lb	40.0	6-1/2
9	5	GOLD 'N' BOLD V/TT1 V Borges · W Y So	V Borges	W Y So	5	126 lb	17.0	6-3/4
10	12	REGENCY POET B/TT K Teetan · K L Man	K Teetan	K L Man	12	121 lb	5.1	7
11	14	THE ELITES CP/TT K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	3	118 lb	145.0	8-1/2
12	11	NOBLE MAN B/E/TT H Bentley · J Size	H Bentley	J Size	10	121 lb	14.0	8-3/4
13	6	ALL THE WAY Closed strongly B-/H1/TT H W Lai · L Ho	H W Lai	L Ho	11	124 lb	45.0	10-3/4
14	13	PRIME TIME H-/B C Wong · Y S Tsui	C Wong	Y S Tsui	2	114 lb	92.0	14

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick BREEZE OF SPRING (26.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	BREEZE OF SPRING	26.6%	3.76	1	2.9
2	10	FOX CHEUNGER	22.7%	4.41	2	4.3
3	4	THIS IS CHARISMA	12.9%	7.73	4	10.0
4	8	OURGOLDENRULES	8.1%	12.33	7	37.0
5	12	REGENCY POET	6.4%	15.51	10	5.1
6	2	GOLDEN FOUR	4.6%	21.93	3	11.0
7	5	GOLD 'N' BOLD	4.2%	23.78	9	17.0
8	11	NOBLE MAN	4.1%	24.33	12	14.0
9	13	PRIME TIME	2.3%	43.44	14	92.0
10	6	ALL THE WAY	2.1%	48.27	13	45.0
11	9	ATHENA	1.7%	59.03	5	76.0
12	7	ANONYMA	1.6%	61.41	8	40.0
13	3	STAR OF RED	1.6%	64.35	6	46.0
14	14	THE ELITES	1.1%	89.77	11	145.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 29

PLACE

1 15

2 27

10 18

QUINELLA

1,10 61.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 57

1,10 31

2,10 98

FORECAST

1,10 154

TIERCE

1,10,2 563

TRIO

1,2,10 159

FIRST 4

1,2,4,10 277

QUARTET

1,10,2,4 3,463

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

12/1 327

12/10 118.5

3 PICK 1

A1 17.5

A3 —

A2 —

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