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Sha Tin · 2021-07-04

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-04 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MISTER SNOWDON, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT second and MASTER MONTARO third. The winner led throughout. The 3.4 favourite MASTER MONTARO finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.20.57
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 MISTER SNOWDON Wire to wire SR 1.20.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 14 13.0 1/2
2 3 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT Closed strongly CP/TT H N Wong · A S Cruz 11 12.0 1/2
3 5 MASTER MONTARO Closed strongly CP C Y Ho · D A Hayes 8 3.4 1/2
4 6 WIND N GRASS Closed strongly TT R Maia · J Size 1 16.0 1-1/4
5 2 GOLD CHEST CP/TT T Piccone · R Gibson 10 26.0 1-3/4
6 4 E STAR Closed strongly H Bentley · K L Man 9 8.6 2
7 8 SUPER OASIS Closed strongly B Shinn · K W Lui 13 13.0 2-3/4
8 10 THE CROWN Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes 7 8.3 2-3/4
9 1 ASSIMILATE Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 12 74.0 3
10 14 KASI FARASI C Wong · C H Yip 6 27.0 3-1/4
11 11 WINNING METHOD TT Z Purton · C S Shum 4 4.3 5-1/2
12 7 AMAZING CHOCOLATE B V Borges · D E Ferraris 5 26.0 8-1/2
13 9 NORDIC SKY K Teetan · A T Millard 2 36.0 9
14 13 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT H W Lai · W Y So 3 103.0 21-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MISTER SNOWDON2. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT+0.5L3. MASTER MONTARO+0.5L4. WIND N GRASS+1.25L5. GOLD CHEST+1.75L6. E STAR+2L7. SUPER OASIS+2.75L8. THE CROWN+2.75L9. ASSIMILATE+3L10. KASI FARASI+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MASTER MONTARO (18.7%) finished 3rd — the winner MISTER SNOWDON was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MASTER MONTARO 18.7% 5.34 3
2 10 THE CROWN 15.2% 6.57 8
3 11 WINNING METHOD 15.0% 6.66 11
4 12 MISTER SNOWDON 10.3% 9.66 1
5 4 E STAR 9.6% 10.37 6
6 9 NORDIC SKY 4.6% 21.56 13
7 6 WIND N GRASS 4.2% 23.56 4
8 3 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT 4.2% 23.70 2
9 14 KASI FARASI 4.1% 24.56 10
10 8 SUPER OASIS 3.7% 27.21 7
11 7 AMAZING CHOCOLATE 3.4% 29.31 12
12 2 GOLD CHEST 3.0% 33.20 5
13 1 ASSIMILATE 2.5% 39.47 9
14 13 TEAM SPIRIT 1.2% 80.73 14
MASTER MONTAROTHE CROWNWINNING METHODMISTER SNOWDON — wonE STARNORDIC SKYWIND N GRASSCALIFORNIADEEPSHOTKASI FARASISUPER OASISAMAZING CHOCOLATEGOLD CHESTASSIMILATETEAM SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 138

PLACE

3 37

5 15

12 49

QUINELLA

3,12 1,214.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 88

3,12 314.5

5,12 114.5

FORECAST

12,3 1,489

TIERCE

12,3,5 6,845

TRIO

3,5,12 939

FIRST 4

3,5,6,12 2,696

QUARTET

12,3,5,6 95,438

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 23.5

8TH DOUBLE

6/3 194

6/12 1,979