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Sha Tin · 2021-07-04

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C+3 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B 1.34.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · W Y So 4 13.0 1-1/4
2 0 FREE FOAL Z Purton · F C Lor 13 2.7 1-1/4
3 0 ROBOT WARRIOR Closed strongly V-/B1 K Teetan · P F Yiu 9 6.7 2
4 0 SHANGHAI DRAGON Led early B H Bentley · T P Yung 1 15.0 2
5 0 SEAWEED FORTUNE Closed strongly V/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 9.5 2
6 0 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 8 8.2 2-3/4
8 0 EL JEFE XB/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 2 12.0 3-1/4
9 0 PEARL CHAMPION B2 T Piccone · C H Yip 3 15.0 3-3/4
10 0 WISDOM PATCH TT R Maia · P O'Sullivan 10 174.0 5
11 0 BRAVE KING Closed strongly B2/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz 14 15.0 5-3/4
12 0 FAST PACE H H N Wong · C Fownes 7 24.0 6
13 0 EVER LAUGH B/TT C L Chau · K L Man 11 19.0 7-3/4
14 0 FLYING SWORD B/TT C Wong · D A Hayes 12 65.0 10-1/4
— 0 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · A T Millard — 49.0 3-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-04 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. COPARTNER ERA, ridden by V Borges and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/4, with FREE FOAL second and ROBOT WARRIOR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite FREE FOAL finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COPARTNER ERA—2. FREE FOAL+1.25L3. ROBOT WARRIOR+2L4. SHANGHAI DRAGON+2L5. SEAWEED FORTUNE+2L6. LEADING FORTUNE+2.75L8. EL JEFE+3.25L9. PEARL CHAMPION+3.75L10. WISDOM PATCH+5L11. BRAVE KING+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick FREE FOAL (18.9%) finished 2nd — the winner COPARTNER ERA was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FREE FOAL 18.9% 5.28 2
2 0 ROBOT WARRIOR 14.7% 6.78 3
3 0 LEADING FORTUNE 13.4% 7.46 6
4 0 SEAWEED FORTUNE 8.1% 12.34 5
5 0 SHANGHAI DRAGON 7.1% 14.10 4
6 0 EL JEFE 6.9% 14.47 8
7 0 COPARTNER ERA 6.6% 15.13 1
8 0 PEARL CHAMPION 5.4% 18.54 9
9 0 FAST PACE 5.3% 18.84 12
10 0 FLYING SWORD 3.9% 25.35 14
11 0 EVER LAUGH 3.6% 27.82 13
12 0 SUPER HONG KONG 2.4% 41.37 —
13 0 BRAVE KING 2.0% 50.40 11
14 0 WISDOM PATCH 1.6% 63.97 10
FREE FOALROBOT WARRIORLEADING FORTUNESEAWEED FORTUNESHANGHAI DRAGONEL JEFECOPARTNER ERA — wonPEARL CHAMPIONFAST PACEFLYING SWORDEVER LAUGHSUPER HONG KONGBRAVE KINGWISDOM PATCH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 139.5

PLACE

6 21

8 14

13 42.5

QUINELLA

8,13 191.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 42

6,13 143.5

8,13 74.5

FORECAST

13,8 625

TIERCE

13,8,6 3,567

TRIO

6,8,13 522

FIRST 4

6,8,9,13 1,308

QUARTET

13,8,6,9 38,899

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 25

A1 —

5TH DOUBLE

7/8 186.5

7/13 2,275.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,10,11/1,7,10/Any Combination 337,925