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Sha Tin · 2021-07-04

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-04 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GALAXY EMPEROR, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-3/4, with GOLDEN BOLT second and PURE LEGEND third. The winner led throughout. The 4.2 favourite ZONE D finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 GALAXY EMPEROR Wire to wire B/H/TT 1.21.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A S Cruz 3 5.6 1-3/4
2 10 GOLDEN BOLT SR/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 13 14.0 1-3/4
3 4 PURE LEGEND Closed strongly V K H Chan · C Fownes 7 7.7 2-1/2
4 3 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT B Shinn · J Size 1 4.2 2-3/4
5 13 ALEE KING PRAWN B H N Wong · K H Ting 2 135.0 2-3/4
6 6 LAPUTA Closed strongly TT1 R Maia · K W Lui 12 155.0 3-1/2
7 12 WIN TECH Closed strongly V Borges · P O'Sullivan 14 238.0 5
8 14 SAM'S LOVE TT J Moreira · C H Yip 10 20.0 5-1/4
9 11 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly B C Y Ho · D J Hall 11 8.7 6-1/4
10 8 CHIU CHOW BROTHER B C L Chau · T P Yung 5 9.7 6-1/2
11 2 LOVE ME MORE K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 12.0 6-1/2
12 1 FLYING VICTORY H/TT H W Lai · F C Lor 6 9.6 6-1/2
13 5 EEVEE Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 9.9 6-3/4
14 7 SIMPLE DOCTRINE CP/XB T Piccone · C W Chang 4 32.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALAXY EMPEROR2. GOLDEN BOLT+1.75L3. PURE LEGEND+2.5L4. ZONE D+2.75L5. ALEE KING PRAWN+2.75L6. LAPUTA+3.5L7. WIN TECH+5L8. SAM'S LOVE+5.25L9. KUNG FU TEA+6.25L10. CHIU CHOW BROTHER+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick EEVEE (18.4%) finished 13th — the winner GALAXY EMPEROR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 EEVEE 18.4% 5.44 13
2 4 PURE LEGEND 13.8% 7.25 3
3 9 GALAXY EMPEROR 13.5% 7.38 1
4 11 KUNG FU TEA 12.5% 7.99 9
5 3 ZONE D 10.7% 9.37 4
6 14 SAM'S LOVE 8.6% 11.64 8
7 8 CHIU CHOW BROTHER 6.8% 14.62 10
8 2 LOVE ME MORE 5.3% 18.79 11
9 10 GOLDEN BOLT 4.4% 22.76 2
10 1 FLYING VICTORY 3.3% 30.73 12
11 6 LAPUTA 1.0% 97.93 6
12 12 WIN TECH 0.8% 129.69 7
13 13 ALEE KING PRAWN 0.5% 197.45 5
14 7 SIMPLE DOCTRINE 0.4% 266.91 14
EEVEEPURE LEGENDGALAXY EMPEROR — wonKUNG FU TEAZONE DSAM'S LOVECHIU CHOW BROTHERLOVE ME MOREGOLDEN BOLTFLYING VICTORYLAPUTAWIN TECHALEE KING PRAWNSIMPLE DOCTRINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 56.5

PLACE

4 22

9 20.5

10 45

QUINELLA

9,10 428.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 65

4,10 220.5

9,10 137

FORECAST

9,10 607

TIERCE

9,10,4 4,721

TRIO

4,9,10 1,002

FIRST 4

3,4,9,10 616

QUARTET

9,10,4,3 16,248

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,8,13/4,9,10 46,236

3 PICK 1

A2 25.5

A3

A1

6TH DOUBLE

13/9 800.5

13/10 336.5