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Sha Tin · 2021-07-04

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-04 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BEAUTY FIT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with C P BRAVE second and SOULMATE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite HALL OF CHAMP finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.33.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E 1.33.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 7 9.8 1/2
2 2 C P BRAVE Closed strongly K Teetan · A T Millard 8 5.7 1/2
3 12 SOULMATE TT- H N Wong · P F Yiu 12 79.0 2-3/4
4 6 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B C L Chau · F C Lor 9 5.7 3
5 5 HALL OF CHAMP TT Z Purton · C Fownes 2 4.3 3-1/4
6 14 GAMEPLAYER TIMES SR/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte 4 8.8 3-3/4
7 13 CHARGE ON B K C Leung · D J Hall 3 4.6 4-1/4
8 10 CHAMPION SUPREME Closed strongly V-/CP1/TT V Borges · Y S Tsui 6 22.0 6
9 3 HELENE ALLIBOR Closed strongly CP1 B Shinn · D A Hayes 10 15.0 7-3/4
10 1 CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · A S Cruz 13 15.0 10-3/4
11 9 CHAMPION PAL Closed strongly B H Bentley · P O'Sullivan 11 231.0 13-1/2
12 8 HEAVENLY THOUGHT C Wong · C H Yip 5 159.0 15-1/2
13 7 CAPTAIN TIGER T Piccone · K L Man 1 196.0 20-1/4
11 BEAUTY DAY H T Mo · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY FIT2. C P BRAVE+0.5L3. SOULMATE+2.75L4. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S+3L5. HALL OF CHAMP+3.25L6. GAMEPLAYER TIMES+3.75L7. CHARGE ON+4.25L8. CHAMPION SUPREME+6L9. HELENE ALLIBOR+7.75L10. CALIFORNIA TEN+10.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HALL OF CHAMP (23.4%) finished 5th — the winner BEAUTY FIT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 HALL OF CHAMP 23.4% 4.27 5
2 4 BEAUTY FIT 16.3% 6.15 1
3 2 C P BRAVE 13.1% 7.65 2
4 6 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 10.0% 10.00 4
5 14 GAMEPLAYER TIMES 9.7% 10.34 6
6 1 CALIFORNIA TEN 8.8% 11.41 10
7 13 CHARGE ON 8.5% 11.71 7
8 3 HELENE ALLIBOR 3.5% 28.39 9
9 10 CHAMPION SUPREME 3.4% 29.51 8
10 8 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 1.1% 87.62 12
11 12 SOULMATE 1.0% 95.71 3
12 7 CAPTAIN TIGER 0.6% 171.64 13
13 9 CHAMPION PAL 0.6% 177.71 11
HALL OF CHAMPBEAUTY FIT — wonC P BRAVEALL FOR ST PAUL'SGAMEPLAYER TIMESCALIFORNIA TENCHARGE ONHELENE ALLIBORCHAMPION SUPREMEHEAVENLY THOUGHTSOULMATECAPTAIN TIGERCHAMPION PAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 98

PLACE

2 20.5

4 28

12 149

QUINELLA

2,4 330.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 98.5

2,12 568

4,12 1,097.5

FORECAST

4,2 553

TIERCE

4,2,12 34,168

TRIO

2,4,12 5,381

FIRST 4

2,4,6,12 5,189

QUARTET

4,2,12,6 137,723

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 20.5

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,12/2,4,12 701,573

9TH DOUBLE

12/2 178

12/4 1,768

SIX UP

1,7/8,13/9,10/5,6/3,12/2,4 103,850

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

6/12/2 1,316

6/12/4 19,299