沙田 · 2021-07-04
第 10場
2021-07-04沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的BEAUTY FIT勝出，贏出1/2。C P BRAVE獲得亞軍；SOULMATE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.3倍大熱門HALL OF CHAMP跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BEAUTY FIT 後段發力 E 1.33.19 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 9.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | C P BRAVE 後段發力 K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 8 | 5.7 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 12 | SOULMATE TT- H N Wong · P F Yiu | H N Wong | P F Yiu | 12 | 79.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 早段領放 B C L Chau · F C Lor | C L Chau | F C Lor | 9 | 5.7 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | HALL OF CHAMP TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 2 | 4.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 14 | GAMEPLAYER TIMES SR/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 4 | 8.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 13 | CHARGE ON B K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | 3 | 4.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | CHAMPION SUPREME 後段發力 V-/CP1/TT V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 6 | 22.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | HELENE ALLIBOR 後段發力 CP1 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 10 | 15.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 1 | CALIFORNIA TEN 後段發力 B/TT R Maia · A S Cruz | R Maia | A S Cruz | 13 | 15.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | CHAMPION PAL 後段發力 B H Bentley · P O'Sullivan | H Bentley | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 231.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 5 | 159.0 | 15-1/2 |
| 13 | 7 | CAPTAIN TIGER T Piccone · K L Man | T Piccone | K L Man | 1 | 196.0 | 20-1/4 |
| — | 11 | BEAUTY DAY H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HALL OF CHAMP | 23.4% | 4.27 | 5 |
| 2 | 4 | BEAUTY FIT | 16.3% | 6.15 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | C P BRAVE | 13.1% | 7.65 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 10.0% | 10.00 | 4 |
| 5 | 14 | GAMEPLAYER TIMES | 9.7% | 10.34 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | CALIFORNIA TEN | 8.8% | 11.41 | 10 |
| 7 | 13 | CHARGE ON | 8.5% | 11.71 | 7 |
| 8 | 3 | HELENE ALLIBOR | 3.5% | 28.39 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | CHAMPION SUPREME | 3.4% | 29.51 | 8 |
| 10 | 8 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 1.1% | 87.62 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | SOULMATE | 1.0% | 95.71 | 3 |
| 12 | 7 | CAPTAIN TIGER | 0.6% | 171.64 | 13 |
| 13 | 9 | CHAMPION PAL | 0.6% | 177.71 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 98
PLACE
2 20.5
4 28
12 149
QUINELLA
2,4 330.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 98.5
2,12 568
4,12 1,097.5
FORECAST
4,2 553
TIERCE
4,2,12 34,168
TRIO
2,4,12 5,381
FIRST 4
2,4,6,12 5,189
QUARTET
4,2,12,6 137,723
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 20.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,12/2,4,12 701,573
9TH DOUBLE
12/2 178
12/4 1,768
SIX UP
1,7/8,13/9,10/5,6/3,12/2,4 103,850
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
6/12/2 1,316
6/12/4 19,299