Sha Tin · 2021-10-01
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | MISTER MONTE Closed strongly CP 1.49.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 10 | 58.0 | N |
| 2 | 0 | DAILY CHARM Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 4 | 8.5 | N |
| 3 | 0 | JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 11 | 14.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 13 | 4.1 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 12 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | FIGURES TWO Closed strongly J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 14 | 3.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | MAGNETISM B/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 6 | 20.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | JIMMU SR B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 8 | 14.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | AMAZING LUCK B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 26.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS WIN B H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 2 | 6.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 0 | GREAT TIMES B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 7 | 120.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | SMILING FACE B C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 9 | 51.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 0 | VIRTUS STAR TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 5 | 64.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 14 | 0 | CIGAR BUDDIES Led early B V Borges · K H Ting | V Borges | K H Ting | 1 | 50.0 | 11 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-01 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. MISTER MONTE, ridden by H T Mo and trained by C W Chang, won by N, with DAILY CHARM second and JOLLY FOREVER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite FIGURES TWO finished 6th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FIGURES TWO | 23.9% | 4.19 | 6 |
| 2 | 0 | VIVA POPCORN | 14.8% | 6.75 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | DIAMOND STAR | 13.5% | 7.41 | 5 |
| 4 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS WIN | 10.8% | 9.24 | 10 |
| 5 | 0 | JIMMU | 7.4% | 13.56 | 8 |
| 6 | 0 | DAILY CHARM | 5.6% | 17.89 | 2 |
| 7 | 0 | JOLLY FOREVER | 4.1% | 24.41 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | SMILING FACE | 3.8% | 26.28 | 12 |
| 9 | 0 | AMAZING LUCK | 3.8% | 26.62 | 9 |
| 10 | 0 | MAGNETISM | 3.2% | 30.94 | 7 |
| 11 | 0 | MISTER MONTE | 3.1% | 32.77 | 1 |
| 12 | 0 | CIGAR BUDDIES | 3.0% | 33.85 | 14 |
| 13 | 0 | VIRTUS STAR | 1.9% | 52.58 | 13 |
| 14 | 0 | GREAT TIMES | 1.2% | 81.24 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 581
PLACE
1 24
10 131
14 41
QUINELLA
1,10 2,069
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 540.5
1,14 159
10,14 837.5
FORECAST
10,1 4,439
TIERCE
10,1,14 36,204
TRIO
1,10,14 8,745
FIRST 4
1,3,10,14 7,963
QUARTET
10,1,14,3 322,139
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,7/1,10,14 1,611,479
3 PICK 1
A3 31.5
A1 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
5/1 74
5/10 2,558