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Sha Tin · 2021-10-01

Race 8

Group 3 GOOD 1000m Course A 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-01 was Group 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUPER WEALTHY, ridden by A Badel and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3/4, with SKY FIELD second and LUCKY PATCH third. The 3.3 favourite LUCKY PATCH finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.54.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SUPER WEALTHY 0.54.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D A Hayes 11 5.2 3/4
2 1 SKY FIELD TT B Shinn · C Fownes 12 11.0 3/4
3 6 LUCKY PATCH H/V C L Chau · K W Lui 14 3.3 1-1/4
4 3 STRONGER SR/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte 13 5.1 1-1/4
5 13 HONG KONG WIN J Moreira · J Size 5 10.0 2
6 14 VALIANT DREAM H T Mo · K W Lui 10 37.0 3
7 10 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS M F Poon · C Fownes 1 41.0 3-3/4
8 7 VOYAGE WARRIOR B1 R Maia · P F Yiu 3 9.8 3-3/4
9 8 WISHFUL THINKER K C Leung · C H Yip 7 46.0 4
10 11 CLASSIC UNICORN TT M Chadwick · W Y So 8 47.0 5
11 2 AMAZING STAR L Ferraris · K H Ting 4 87.0 5-3/4
12 5 LUCKY MORE CP1/XB1 H N Wong · C S Shum 9 58.0 6-1/2
13 4 COMPUTER PATCH TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 10.0 7
14 12 PING HAI BRAVO E/TT V Borges · J Size 2 57.0 8
0 BEAUTY APPLAUSE Z Purton · J Size

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER WEALTHY2. SKY FIELD+0.75L3. LUCKY PATCH+1.25L4. STRONGER+1.25L5. HONG KONG WIN+2L6. VALIANT DREAM+3L7. EXPLOSIVE WITNESS+3.75L8. VOYAGE WARRIOR+3.75L9. WISHFUL THINKER+4L10. CLASSIC UNICORN+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LUCKY PATCH (24.8%) finished 3rd — the winner SUPER WEALTHY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 LUCKY PATCH 24.8% 4.03 3
2 9 SUPER WEALTHY 14.5% 6.89 1
3 1 SKY FIELD 12.1% 8.24 2
4 13 HONG KONG WIN 11.8% 8.48 5
5 4 COMPUTER PATCH 8.6% 11.58 13
6 3 STRONGER 5.8% 17.20 4
7 10 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS 4.0% 24.78 7
8 14 VALIANT DREAM 3.5% 28.83 6
9 11 CLASSIC UNICORN 3.1% 32.05 10
10 5 LUCKY MORE 2.7% 36.52 12
11 12 PING HAI BRAVO 2.5% 39.36 14
12 8 WISHFUL THINKER 2.2% 45.85 9
13 7 VOYAGE WARRIOR 2.2% 45.86 8
14 2 AMAZING STAR 2.0% 49.78 11
LUCKY PATCHSUPER WEALTHY — wonSKY FIELDHONG KONG WINCOMPUTER PATCHSTRONGEREXPLOSIVE WITNESSVALIANT DREAMCLASSIC UNICORNLUCKY MOREPING HAI BRAVOWISHFUL THINKERVOYAGE WARRIORAMAZING STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 52.5

PLACE

1 33

6 15

9 19

QUINELLA

1,9 276.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 74

1,9 89.5

6,9 35.5

FORECAST

9,1 724

TIERCE

9,1,6 1,798

TRIO

1,6,9 248

FIRST 4

1,3,6,9 239

QUARTET

9,1,6,3 6,711

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 20

A2

7TH DOUBLE

2/1 75

2/9 275.5

WINNING TRAINER

B2

B1

B3

B4 15