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Sha Tin · 2021-10-01

Race 7

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course A 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MASTER MONTARO Closed strongly CP 1.21.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 4.9 1-1/2
2 0 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E A Badel · J Size 3 14.0 1-1/2
3 0 SEA OF LIFE Closed strongly V C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 16.0 3
4 0 MISTER SNOWDON SR C L Chau · D J Whyte 7 2.9 3-1/4
5 0 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 5.1 4
6 0 SCORES OF FUN Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · J Size 5 49.0 5-1/4
7 0 MR CROISSANT CP H W Lai · W Y So 2 103.0 7
8 0 REGENCY BO BO B/TT C Wong · C S Shum 4 90.0 7-1/4
9 0 SIGHT SUCCESS Led early E J Moreira · J Size 1 3.8 11-1/4
10 0 AMAZING ONE PLUS P/XB/TT A Hamelin · T P Yung 10 23.0 12-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-01 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MASTER MONTARO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/2, with BEAUTY FIT second and SEA OF LIFE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite MISTER SNOWDON finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER MONTARO—2. BEAUTY FIT+1.5L3. SEA OF LIFE+3L4. MISTER SNOWDON+3.25L5. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT+4L6. SCORES OF FUN+5.25L7. MR CROISSANT+7L8. REGENCY BO BO+7.25L9. SIGHT SUCCESS+11.25L10. AMAZING ONE PLUS+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MISTER SNOWDON (20.4%) finished 4th — the winner MASTER MONTARO was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MISTER SNOWDON 20.4% 4.91 4
2 0 SIGHT SUCCESS 19.8% 5.04 9
3 0 MASTER MONTARO 18.4% 5.43 1
4 0 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT 13.5% 7.42 5
5 0 BEAUTY FIT 9.7% 10.26 2
6 0 SCORES OF FUN 5.2% 19.24 6
7 0 SEA OF LIFE 4.6% 21.69 3
8 0 REGENCY BO BO 4.4% 22.50 8
9 0 AMAZING ONE PLUS 2.7% 36.36 10
10 0 MR CROISSANT 1.2% 86.51 7
MISTER SNOWDONSIGHT SUCCESSMASTER MONTARO — wonCALIFORNIADEEPSHOTBEAUTY FITSCORES OF FUNSEA OF LIFEREGENCY BO BOAMAZING ONE PLUSMR CROISSANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 49

PLACE

2 16.5

6 32.5

10 40

QUINELLA

2,6 330.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 99.5

2,10 96.5

6,10 233.5

FORECAST

2,6 561

TIERCE

2,6,10 4,822

TRIO

2,6,10 1,168

FIRST 4

2,4,6,10 652

QUARTET

2,6,10,4 19,659

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,10/2,6,10 128,103

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 —

A2 22.5

6TH DOUBLE

3/2 477

3/6 305.5