Sha Tin · 2021-10-01
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LORD THUNDER, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D A Hayes, won by 4, with E BROTHER second and YOUNG VICTORY third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | LORD THUNDER XB/TT 1.09.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 3 | 1.9 | 4 |
| 2 | 10 | E BROTHER TT1 M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 9 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 3 | 12 | YOUNG VICTORY TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 2 | 7.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | DURHAM STAR Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 6.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | PRIDE OF DRAGON K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 10 | 51.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | MONSTER KAKA TT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 8 | 9.6 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | HK DRAGON B/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 12 | 18.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | AMAZING TEENS H1 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 27.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | SPARTAN MISSILE L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 11 | 72.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL XB1 K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 7 | 12.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | STAR OF GLORY H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 4 | 137.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | COOLCELEB B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 6 | 134.0 | 21-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | LORD THUNDER | 22.7% | 4.41 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | AMAZING TEENS | 18.5% | 5.41 | 8 |
| 3 | 9 | DURHAM STAR | 16.9% | 5.93 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 9.7% | 10.27 | 10 |
| 5 | 8 | HK DRAGON | 8.7% | 11.55 | 7 |
| 6 | 11 | MONSTER KAKA | 7.4% | 13.45 | 6 |
| 7 | 12 | YOUNG VICTORY | 7.4% | 13.53 | 3 |
| 8 | 3 | COOLCELEB | 2.8% | 35.19 | 12 |
| 9 | 7 | SPARTAN MISSILE | 2.4% | 42.01 | 9 |
| 10 | 6 | PRIDE OF DRAGON | 2.1% | 47.34 | 5 |
| 11 | 10 | E BROTHER | 0.9% | 112.64 | 2 |
| 12 | 1 | STAR OF GLORY | 0.5% | 185.87 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 19.5
PLACE
2 12
10 29
12 21
QUINELLA
2,10 191.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,10 62.5
2,12 32.5
10,12 140.5
FORECAST
2,10 164
TIERCE
2,10,12 1,289
TRIO
2,10,12 407
FIRST 4
2,9,10,12 358
QUARTET
2,10,12,9 5,329
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
5/2 29
5/10 199.5
3 PICK 1
A1 15
A2 —
A3 —