Sha Tin · 2021-10-01
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-01 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. NERVOUS WITNESS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3-3/4, with GOOD VIEW CLARICO second and BRILLIANT FORTUNE third. Victory came as the 1.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | NERVOUS WITNESS 0.55.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 9 | 1.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 2 | 36.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE B/H J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 11.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | GLORIFIED FIRE TT- K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 6 | 104.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | FLYING HIGH H/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 4 | 45.0 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 | MAGIC PHOENIX H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 1 | 135.0 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | DUBLIN STAR B/TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 7 | 19.0 | 8 |
| 8 | 5 | PROPICE C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 119.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | IAN M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 10 | 57.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | CARROLL STREET XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 5 | 7.3 | 13 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | NERVOUS WITNESS | 46.3% | 2.16 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | CARROLL STREET | 21.4% | 4.68 | 10 |
| 3 | 6 | BRILLIANT FORTUNE | 15.6% | 6.40 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | DUBLIN STAR | 5.2% | 19.12 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | GOOD VIEW CLARICO | 3.6% | 28.13 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | IAN | 2.2% | 44.47 | 9 |
| 7 | 5 | PROPICE | 1.8% | 54.16 | 8 |
| 8 | 10 | FLYING HIGH | 1.8% | 54.21 | 5 |
| 9 | 3 | MAGIC PHOENIX | 1.6% | 63.09 | 6 |
| 10 | 9 | GLORIFIED FIRE | 0.4% | 284.36 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 12
PLACE
2 45.5
6 16.5
8 10.1
QUINELLA
2,8 168
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 143
2,8 60
6,8 19
FORECAST
8,2 179
TIERCE
8,2,6 638
TRIO
2,6,8 243
FIRST 4
2,6,8,9 1,725
QUARTET
8,2,6,9 11,836
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 12
A3 —
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
10/2 1,922
10/8 622