Sha Tin · 2021-10-10
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-10 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on WET SLOW going. LITTLE BIRD, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K L Man, won by NOSE, with THE ELITES second and REGENCY GEM third. The 5.0 favourite GARLIC HERO finished 12th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | LITTLE BIRD V/TT 1.10.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 9 | 9.7 | NOSE |
| 2 | 12 | THE ELITES TT V Borges · F C Lor | V Borges | F C Lor | 1 | 25.0 | NOSE |
| 3 | 3 | REGENCY GEM B/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 6 | 9.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | GENERAL TRUMP B1/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 7 | 5.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | MASTERWORK H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 11 | 6.2 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | FOREVER CITY TT K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 12.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | HOLYSHOWCASING B2 L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 8 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN B K Teetan · L Ho | K Teetan | L Ho | 10 | 9.8 | 7 |
| 9 | 10 | E HONEY B1 J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 12.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | OURGOLDENRULES SR-/XB/B2 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 2 | 29.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | ZELUS CP H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 12 | 39.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | GARLIC HERO E/TT B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 4 | 5.0 | 10-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | E HONEY | 20.8% | 4.80 | 9 |
| 2 | 3 | REGENCY GEM | 13.8% | 7.27 | 3 |
| 3 | 5 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN | 13.6% | 7.35 | 8 |
| 4 | 7 | GARLIC HERO | 11.7% | 8.57 | 12 |
| 5 | 11 | OURGOLDENRULES | 8.5% | 11.71 | 10 |
| 6 | 6 | GENERAL TRUMP | 7.9% | 12.71 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | FOREVER CITY | 7.3% | 13.71 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | MASTERWORK | 4.8% | 20.93 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | HOLYSHOWCASING | 3.6% | 27.40 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | LITTLE BIRD | 3.5% | 28.81 | 1 |
| 11 | 12 | THE ELITES | 3.3% | 30.08 | 2 |
| 12 | 8 | ZELUS | 1.2% | 81.38 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 97.5
PLACE
2 37
3 27.5
12 59.5
QUINELLA
2,12 1,159
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 151
2,12 328.5
3,12 311.5
FORECAST
2,12 2,773
TIERCE
2,12,3 19,804
TRIO
2,3,12 2,867
FIRST 4
2,3,6,12 3,042
QUARTET
2,12,3,6 85,842
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 27.5
A3 —