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Sha Tin · 2021-10-10

Race 7

Class 3 WET SLOW 1650m 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-10 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on WET SLOW going. CHANCHENG PRINCE, ridden by R Maia and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-3/4, with ULTRA EXPRESS second and TRUE LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite ULTRA EXPRESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 CHANCHENG PRINCE Closed strongly XB/TT 1.39.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · K W Lui 13 53.0 2-3/4
2 3 ULTRA EXPRESS Closed strongly TT J Moreira · A T Millard 10 3.0 2-3/4
3 5 TRUE LEGEND B M F Poon · F C Lor 3 3.8 3
4 13 PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 8 12.0 6-1/4
5 4 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT H N Wong · K W Lui 1 21.0 6-1/2
6 9 GOLD COMET B C Schofield · K H Ting 6 15.0 7-1/4
7 8 GAMEPLAYER TIMES Closed strongly SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 7.9 7-1/4
8 10 INVINCIBLE MISSILE TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 4 49.0 8-1/2
9 2 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE XB2 K Teetan · C W Chang 7 12.0 9-1/2
10 7 ELON E/P V Borges · J Size 2 17.0 10
11 1 ELITE PATCH B/H/TT K C Leung · K W Lui 12 26.0 24-1/4
12 11 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/PC/TT A Badel · R Gibson 5 30.0 29
13 12 SPLENDID LIVING A Hamelin · P F Yiu 9 17.0 35-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHANCHENG PRINCE2. ULTRA EXPRESS+2.75L3. TRUE LEGEND+3L4. PARTY EVERYDAY+6.25L5. SKYEY SUPREME+6.5L6. GOLD COMET+7.25L7. GAMEPLAYER TIMES+7.25L8. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+8.5L9. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+9.5L10. ELON+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ULTRA EXPRESS (39.0%) finished 2nd — the winner CHANCHENG PRINCE was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 ULTRA EXPRESS 39.0% 2.56 2
2 8 GAMEPLAYER TIMES 9.8% 10.22 7
3 5 TRUE LEGEND 8.3% 12.00 3
4 9 GOLD COMET 8.0% 12.54 6
5 7 ELON 7.1% 14.14 10
6 11 RIGHT HONOURABLE 5.5% 18.11 12
7 13 PARTY EVERYDAY 5.3% 18.73 4
8 2 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 4.5% 22.16 9
9 10 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 3.9% 25.60 8
10 12 SPLENDID LIVING 2.6% 38.93 13
11 1 ELITE PATCH 2.2% 45.25 11
12 4 SKYEY SUPREME 2.0% 49.70 5
13 6 CHANCHENG PRINCE 1.8% 56.96 1
ULTRA EXPRESSGAMEPLAYER TIMESTRUE LEGENDGOLD COMETELONRIGHT HONOURABLEPARTY EVERYDAYRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEINVINCIBLE MISSILESPLENDID LIVINGELITE PATCHSKYEY SUPREMECHANCHENG PRINCE — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 537.5

PLACE

3 18

5 16.5

6 130

QUINELLA

3,6 1,192

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 42.5

3,6 370

5,6 339

FORECAST

6,3 3,259

TIERCE

6,3,5 24,699

TRIO

3,5,6 1,792

FIRST 4

3,5,6,13 3,268

QUARTET

6,3,5,13 130,670

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,7,11/3,5,6 53,484

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 26

6TH DOUBLE

1/3 76

1/6 3,162.5