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Sha Tin · 2021-10-10

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1400m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HARMONY WIN WIN Closed strongly SR/XB 1.21.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 11 7.8 2-1/2
2 0 BREEZE OF SPRING Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 2 2.4 2-1/2
3 0 SUPER MISSION Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 12 12.0 2-1/2
4 0 STREET SCREAM Led early H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 9 14.0 2-3/4
5 0 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · W Y So 14 17.0 3
6 0 SUNNY BABY M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 12.0 4-1/2
7 0 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT K H Chan · T P Yung 7 32.0 4-3/4
8 0 GENERAL WINNER Closed strongly H1 H Bentley · K H Ting 13 113.0 6
9 0 SOLAR POWER A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 5.5 6-1/2
10 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP A Badel · P O'Sullivan 5 21.0 7-1/4
11 0 EMERALD SPUR B B Shinn · P F Yiu 6 22.0 7-1/4
12 0 FLYING MIGHTY Closed strongly TT C Schofield · D J Hall 4 40.0 7-3/4
13 0 BLAZING BEAT CP/XB H T Mo · C W Chang 1 54.0 10-1/2
14 0 MAGIC SUPREME CP/TT R Maia · K L Man 3 39.0 12

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-10 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. HARMONY WIN WIN, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-1/2, with BREEZE OF SPRING second and SUPER MISSION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite BREEZE OF SPRING finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY WIN WIN—2. BREEZE OF SPRING+2.5L3. SUPER MISSION+2.5L4. STREET SCREAM+2.75L5. JIANGXI STAMINA+3L6. SUNNY BABY+4.5L7. CITY LEGEND+4.75L8. GENERAL WINNER+6L9. SOLAR POWER+6.5L10. TURQUOISE ALPHA+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BREEZE OF SPRING (38.6%) finished 2nd — the winner HARMONY WIN WIN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BREEZE OF SPRING 38.6% 2.59 2
2 0 HARMONY WIN WIN 11.1% 8.97 1
3 0 SOLAR POWER 7.4% 13.50 9
4 0 SUPER MISSION 7.2% 13.90 3
5 0 STREET SCREAM 5.1% 19.48 4
6 0 JIANGXI STAMINA 5.0% 20.08 5
7 0 EMERALD SPUR 3.7% 26.77 11
8 0 CITY LEGEND 3.7% 27.12 7
9 0 BLAZING BEAT 3.6% 27.99 13
10 0 GENERAL WINNER 3.5% 28.51 8
11 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA 3.4% 29.11 10
12 0 SUNNY BABY 2.8% 35.83 6
13 0 FLYING MIGHTY 2.5% 40.45 12
14 0 MAGIC SUPREME 2.3% 42.91 14
BREEZE OF SPRINGHARMONY WIN WIN — wonSOLAR POWERSUPER MISSIONSTREET SCREAMJIANGXI STAMINAEMERALD SPURCITY LEGENDBLAZING BEATGENERAL WINNERTURQUOISE ALPHASUNNY BABYFLYING MIGHTYMAGIC SUPREME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 78.5

PLACE

1 24

7 36

11 13.5

QUINELLA

1,11 108

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 151.5

1,11 45.5

7,11 70

FORECAST

1,11 310

TIERCE

1,11,7 2,435

TRIO

1,7,11 461

FIRST 4

1,7,9,11 1,002

QUARTET

1,11,7,9 24,090

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 43

5TH DOUBLE

12/1 2,100

12/11 162.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

10,12,13/2,12,13/Any Combination 240,884