Sha Tin · 2021-10-10

Race 5

Class 4 WET SLOW 1650m 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-10 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on WET SLOW going. THE MINT, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K H Ting, won by 2-3/4, with LONDON LUCKYSTAR second and HANG'S DECISION third. The winner led throughout. The 4.7 favourite FAIRY FLOSS finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.40.35

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	12	THE MINT Wire to wire H/V/TT 1.40.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K H Ting	M Chadwick	K H Ting	3	115 lb	22.0	2-3/4
2	13	LONDON LUCKYSTAR Closed strongly PC K Teetan · L Ho	K Teetan	L Ho	11	113 lb	7.9	2-3/4
3	2	HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B A Badel · W Y So	A Badel	W Y So	9	132 lb	15.0	3
4	8	TOYCOON Closed strongly CP B Shinn · P F Yiu	B Shinn	P F Yiu	12	123 lb	12.0	4-1/2
5	7	SWIFT SPIRIT Closed strongly K C Leung · C W Chang	K C Leung	C W Chang	1	123 lb	20.0	5
6	11	SURE WIN WIN Closed strongly V H Bentley · T P Yung	H Bentley	T P Yung	7	117 lb	8.1	6
7	6	LADY FIRST CP/H/XB/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz	M F Poon	A S Cruz	2	123 lb	11.0	6
8	5	GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly K H Chan · C H Yip	K H Chan	C H Yip	4	119 lb	8.1	6-1/4
9	14	EL VALIENTE Closed strongly B M L Yeung · C Fownes	M L Yeung	C Fownes	13	113 lb	7.7	6-1/2
10	3	ROYAL AGILITY CP/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui	H T Mo	Y S Tsui	5	126 lb	102.0	7-1/4
11	9	FAIRY FLOSS Closed strongly CP/H J Moreira · P O'Sullivan	J Moreira	P O'Sullivan	14	122 lb	4.7	9-1/2
12	10	LUMEN BABA P-/H/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	8	117 lb	59.0	13-1/4
13	1	UNITE SPIRIT B/XB L Ferraris · D E Ferraris	L Ferraris	D E Ferraris	6	133 lb	17.0	13-3/4
14	4	AWE PC A Hamelin · D A Hayes	A Hamelin	D A Hayes	10	128 lb	12.0	16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick FAIRY FLOSS (18.8%) finished 11th — the winner THE MINT was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	FAIRY FLOSS	18.8%	5.31	11	4.7
2	6	LADY FIRST	12.2%	8.23	7	11.0
3	11	SURE WIN WIN	9.4%	10.69	6	8.1
4	14	EL VALIENTE	8.2%	12.25	9	7.7
5	4	AWE	8.0%	12.43	14	12.0
6	7	SWIFT SPIRIT	8.0%	12.55	5	20.0
7	5	GLORIOUS LOVER	7.4%	13.59	8	8.1
8	8	TOYCOON	6.8%	14.73	4	12.0
9	2	HANG'S DECISION	4.9%	20.59	3	15.0
10	1	UNITE SPIRIT	4.6%	21.63	13	17.0
11	13	LONDON LUCKYSTAR	4.3%	23.22	2	7.9
12	10	LUMEN BABA	3.8%	26.46	12	59.0
13	12	THE MINT	2.5%	40.30	1	22.0
14	3	ROYAL AGILITY	1.3%	78.86	10	102.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 222

PLACE

2 43

12 62

13 26

QUINELLA

12,13 879.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,12 421.5

2,13 200.5

12,13 277

FORECAST

12,13 2,110

TIERCE

12,13,2 34,540

TRIO

2,12,13 4,992

FIRST 4

2,8,12,13 13,870

QUARTET

12,13,2,8 468,104

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 14.5

A1 —

A2 —

4TH DOUBLE

10/12 4,944

10/13 312.5

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