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Sha Tin · 2021-10-10

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1000m Course A+3 14 runners

Result

Official · 0.56.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SPARKLING KNIGHT B- 0.56.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C H Yip 14 2.5 1-3/4
2 0 AMAZING ROCKY H C Wong · T P Yung 3 23.0 1-3/4
3 0 CARRY THE DIAMOND PC M F Poon · R Gibson 11 8.5 3-1/4
4 0 SHOWINA B K C Leung · W Y So 4 42.0 4-3/4
5 0 SMART IDEA H/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 9 5.5 5
6 0 CHICKEN DANCE CP-/B2 A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan 5 15.0 6
7 0 MY INTELLIGENT H T Mo · L Ho 12 123.0 6-3/4
8 0 FIGHTING STAR CP-/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 1 10.0 7-1/2
9 0 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H1/XB1/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 13 12.0 7-3/4
10 0 LUCKY TREASURE H/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 7 117.0 10-3/4
11 0 SPICY SO GOOD B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 10 8.0 11-1/2
12 0 BOYS PARTY XB J Moreira · A T Millard 8 21.0 14-1/4
13 0 FANTASY SPRING H W Lai · Y S Tsui 2 205.0 19-1/4
14 0 HONEY BEE B/XB1/TT V Borges · K L Man 6 89.0 20-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-10 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. SPARKLING KNIGHT, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-3/4, with AMAZING ROCKY second and CARRY THE DIAMOND third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPARKLING KNIGHT—2. AMAZING ROCKY+1.75L3. CARRY THE DIAMOND+3.25L4. SHOWINA+4.75L5. SMART IDEA+5L6. CHICKEN DANCE+6L7. MY INTELLIGENT+6.75L8. FIGHTING STAR+7.5L9. PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN+7.75L10. LUCKY TREASURE+10.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick AMAZING ROCKY (16.2%) finished 2nd — the winner SPARKLING KNIGHT was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 AMAZING ROCKY 16.2% 6.19 2
2 0 SMART IDEA 15.4% 6.49 5
3 0 CARRY THE DIAMOND 11.0% 9.08 3
4 0 PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN 9.9% 10.13 9
5 0 CHICKEN DANCE 9.8% 10.23 6
6 0 SPICY SO GOOD 8.9% 11.29 11
7 0 FIGHTING STAR 7.3% 13.61 8
8 0 SHOWINA 6.3% 15.97 4
9 0 SPARKLING KNIGHT 5.9% 16.95 1
10 0 BOYS PARTY 3.5% 28.49 12
11 0 MY INTELLIGENT 3.5% 28.96 7
12 0 LUCKY TREASURE 0.9% 108.02 10
13 0 HONEY BEE 0.8% 123.12 14
14 0 FANTASY SPRING 0.7% 141.46 13
AMAZING ROCKYSMART IDEACARRY THE DIAMONDPRETTY QUEEN PRAWNCHICKEN DANCESPICY SO GOODFIGHTING STARSHOWINASPARKLING KNIGHT — wonBOYS PARTYMY INTELLIGENTLUCKY TREASUREHONEY BEEFANTASY SPRING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 25

PLACE

1 57.5

5 14

13 21

QUINELLA

1,5 284.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 122.5

1,13 210.5

5,13 46.5

FORECAST

5,1 443

TIERCE

5,1,13 2,366

TRIO

1,5,13 826

FIRST 4

1,4,5,13 3,561

QUARTET

5,1,13,4 44,821

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/1 307

2/5 387

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 17.5