Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-10-10

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-10-10 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. EXCELLENT DADDY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by T P Yung, won by HD, with FIRST RESPONDER second and SAUVESTRE third. The 2.6 favourite GLUCK RACER finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.08.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 EXCELLENT DADDY 1.08.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · T P Yung 4 6.3 HD
2 2 FIRST RESPONDER B C L Chau · D J Whyte 2 11.0 HD
3 10 SAUVESTRE H Bentley · F C Lor 8 28.0 1/2
4 4 ROYAL PRIDE B-/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 9 125.0 1-1/4
5 8 LIFELINE VISION R Maia · D A Hayes 3 21.0 1-1/2
6 6 GLUCK RACER V C Schofield · K H Ting 11 2.6 1-1/2
7 11 STAR OF YUEN LONG B K Teetan · K L Man 12 11.0 2-1/2
8 3 HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC J Moreira · K W Lui 5 10.0 5
9 1 ARMANDO B1/TT1 L Ferraris · A T Millard 10 12.0 5-1/4
10 9 CROSSFORD A Badel · J Size 14 39.0 5-3/4
11 5 SUPER DYNAMITE A Hamelin · P F Yiu 7 194.0 10-1/2
12 13 CALIFORNIA CIBLE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 13 5.3 10-3/4
13 14 BRIGHT KID B/XB H N Wong · W Y So 6 84.0 11-1/4
14 7 SHADOW MISSION H1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 160.0 34-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EXCELLENT DADDY2. FIRST RESPONDER+0.2L3. SAUVESTRE+0.5L4. ROYAL PRIDE+1.25L5. LIFELINE VISION+1.5L6. GLUCK RACER+1.5L7. STAR OF YUEN LONG+2.5L8. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+5L9. ARMANDO+5.25L10. CROSSFORD+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick GLUCK RACER (27.8%) finished 6th — the winner EXCELLENT DADDY was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 GLUCK RACER 27.8% 3.60 6
2 13 CALIFORNIA CIBLE 15.2% 6.57 12
3 2 FIRST RESPONDER 13.5% 7.40 2
4 3 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 8.8% 11.31 8
5 10 SAUVESTRE 6.1% 16.49 3
6 11 STAR OF YUEN LONG 5.8% 17.21 7
7 9 CROSSFORD 5.0% 20.20 10
8 12 EXCELLENT DADDY 3.7% 26.88 1
9 8 LIFELINE VISION 3.6% 27.50 5
10 7 SHADOW MISSION 3.6% 27.73 14
11 1 ARMANDO 2.8% 36.34 9
12 4 ROYAL PRIDE 1.8% 54.93 4
13 5 SUPER DYNAMITE 1.4% 73.48 11
14 14 BRIGHT KID 1.0% 104.29 13
GLUCK RACERCALIFORNIA CIBLEFIRST RESPONDERHIGH RISE SOLDIERSAUVESTRESTAR OF YUEN LONGCROSSFORDEXCELLENT DADDY — wonLIFELINE VISIONSHADOW MISSIONARMANDOROYAL PRIDESUPER DYNAMITEBRIGHT KID

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 63

PLACE

2 31.5

10 60.5

12 19.5

QUINELLA

2,12 472.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 410.5

2,12 140

10,12 226

FORECAST

12,2 590

TIERCE

12,2,10 16,074

TRIO

2,10,12 2,642

FIRST 4

2,4,10,12 41,458

QUARTET

12,2,10,4 568,488

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 30

8TH DOUBLE

4/2 112

4/12 633.5