Happy Valley · 2021-11-10
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-10 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. OFF THE REEL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with WHO LOVES THE ACE second and AMAZING BOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite CENTENARY IBIS finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | OFF THE REEL Closed strongly XB 1.41.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 10 | 3.9 | SH |
| 2 | 5 | WHO LOVES THE ACE Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 11 | 33.0 | SH |
| 3 | 7 | AMAZING BOY Closed strongly B1/TT H Bentley · C W Chang | H Bentley | C W Chang | 7 | 26.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | CENTENARY IBIS B/XB/TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 4 | 3.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | WONDERFUL TIGER H/XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 6 | 18.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | SHANGHAI GRACE Closed strongly B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 3 | 4.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | MUDITA Led early B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 8 | 28.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | PRESIDENT STAR B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 1 | 5.5 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | PEARL CHAMPION K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 9 | 23.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | HAR HAR HEART Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 12 | 66.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | SUPER FLAMES B H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 5 | 166.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | VIRTUS STAR TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 2 | 25.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | PRESIDENT STAR | 28.6% | 3.49 | 8 |
| 2 | 1 | OFF THE REEL | 23.2% | 4.31 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | CENTENARY IBIS | 13.4% | 7.47 | 4 |
| 4 | 12 | SHANGHAI GRACE | 7.1% | 14.16 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | WONDERFUL TIGER | 6.1% | 16.28 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | MUDITA | 5.8% | 17.37 | 7 |
| 7 | 5 | WHO LOVES THE ACE | 5.4% | 18.67 | 2 |
| 8 | 2 | PEARL CHAMPION | 3.1% | 32.30 | 9 |
| 9 | 8 | HAR HAR HEART | 2.6% | 39.19 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | VIRTUS STAR | 1.9% | 53.50 | 12 |
| 11 | 6 | SUPER FLAMES | 1.7% | 58.99 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | AMAZING BOY | 1.3% | 78.72 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 39
PLACE
1 16
5 92
7 62.5
QUINELLA
1,5 591
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 210
1,7 164.5
5,7 691
FORECAST
1,5 1,309
TIERCE
1,5,7 16,877
TRIO
1,5,7 3,764
FIRST 4
1,5,7,11 3,273
QUARTET
1,5,7,11 90,678
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 19
A1 —