Happy Valley · 2021-11-10
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-10 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. JOYFUL WIN, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2-1/4, with CHARMING STEED second and WILD WEST WING third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | JOYFUL WIN B 0.57.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 8 | 3.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 5 | CHARMING STEED TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | WILD WEST WING J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 3.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 9 | 18.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | HAPPY TANGO B K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 2 | 5.1 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | JOYFUL GENIUS L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 11 | 47.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | REGENT GLORY B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 10 | 7.4 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | TRAVEL DATUK B C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 12 | 41.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | BEAUTY AMIGO B/TT V Borges · K L Man | V Borges | K L Man | 7 | 20.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 12 | EVER JOY XB K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 29.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | NOBODY KNOWS H1 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 5 | 135.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 9 | LEAN LEGEND XB/V1/TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 4 | 171.0 | 12-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | JOYFUL WIN | 14.4% | 6.93 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | WILD WEST WING | 14.3% | 7.00 | 3 |
| 3 | 8 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 13.9% | 7.19 | 4 |
| 4 | 10 | REGENT GLORY | 13.7% | 7.29 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | HAPPY TANGO | 10.8% | 9.25 | 5 |
| 6 | 12 | EVER JOY | 9.1% | 10.93 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 7.1% | 14.18 | 9 |
| 8 | 5 | CHARMING STEED | 6.8% | 14.76 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | NOBODY KNOWS | 3.9% | 25.37 | 11 |
| 10 | 11 | TRAVEL DATUK | 3.1% | 32.60 | 8 |
| 11 | 6 | JOYFUL GENIUS | 2.1% | 47.13 | 6 |
| 12 | 9 | LEAN LEGEND | 0.8% | 132.10 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 30
PLACE
2 16.5
3 12
5 40.5
QUINELLA
3,5 194.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 29
2,5 97
3,5 56.5
FORECAST
3,5 383
TIERCE
3,5,2 1,277
TRIO
2,3,5 241
FIRST 4
2,3,5,8 508
QUARTET
3,5,2,8 12,011
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
7/3 296.5
7/5 197
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 16.5