Happy Valley · 2021-11-10

Race 6

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course B 9 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-10 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SIGHT SUCCESS, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with KA YING MASTER second and WINNING METHOD third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.37

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	SIGHT SUCCESS E 1.09.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	2	124 lb	3.0	3/4
2	3	KA YING MASTER TT C L Chau · T P Yung	C L Chau	T P Yung	5	117 lb	11.0	3/4
3	9	WINNING METHOD TT M Chadwick · C S Shum	M Chadwick	C S Shum	6	115 lb	9.9	1
4	6	DROPS OF GOD J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	9	116 lb	4.0	2-1/4
5	5	SHINING GEM CP H Bentley · P F Yiu	H Bentley	P F Yiu	8	118 lb	17.0	3-1/4
6	8	TRANSCENDENT CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	4	116 lb	8.4	3-3/4
7	1	SPARKLING DRAGON TT K C Leung · A T Millard	K C Leung	A T Millard	1	125 lb	7.0	4
8	4	IGNITING B M F Poon · K W Lui	M F Poon	K W Lui	7	116 lb	8.7	4-1/2
9	7	FLYING BONUS P- H N Wong · C H Yip	H N Wong	C H Yip	3	113 lb	48.0	14

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick DROPS OF GOD (42.8%) finished 4th — the winner SIGHT SUCCESS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	DROPS OF GOD	42.8%	2.34	4	4.0
2	2	SIGHT SUCCESS	15.1%	6.60	1	3.0
3	8	TRANSCENDENT	12.2%	8.19	6	8.4
4	1	SPARKLING DRAGON	7.7%	13.06	7	7.0
5	3	KA YING MASTER	6.8%	14.63	2	11.0
6	9	WINNING METHOD	6.4%	15.67	3	9.9
7	4	IGNITING	4.1%	24.16	8	8.7
8	5	SHINING GEM	3.6%	27.90	5	17.0
9	7	FLYING BONUS	1.3%	79.00	9	48.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 30.5

PLACE

2 13.5

3 34.5

9 25.5

QUINELLA

2,3 284

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 95.5

2,9 47

3,9 192

FORECAST

2,3 487

TIERCE

2,3,9 3,495

TRIO

2,3,9 683

FIRST 4

2,3,6,9 574

QUARTET

2,3,9,6 15,176

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 17.5

A3 —

5TH DOUBLE

7/2 334

7/3 75

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