Happy Valley · 2021-11-10
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-10 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RED MAJESTY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by HD, with SHADOW BREAKER second and NORDIC WARRIOR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite BREEZE OF SPRING finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | RED MAJESTY Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 3 | 3.9 | HD |
| 2 | 10 | SHADOW BREAKER Closed strongly SR/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 10 | 23.0 | HD |
| 3 | 4 | NORDIC WARRIOR Closed strongly B C L Chau · R Gibson | C L Chau | R Gibson | 6 | 33.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | MANNA FROM HEAVEN Closed strongly XB M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 4 | 8.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | GREAT TREASURE K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 2 | 51.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 12 | 4.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | BREEZE OF SPRING TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 5 | 3.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 9 | 17.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | DURHAM STAR Closed strongly B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT Led early B K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 8 | 65.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | CASA DE FORCA B A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 1 | 24.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | MING WARRIOR TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 7 | 21.0 | 56-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | RED MAJESTY | 36.0% | 2.78 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | BREEZE OF SPRING | 27.8% | 3.60 | 7 |
| 3 | 12 | VIVA POPCORN | 10.7% | 9.36 | 5 |
| 4 | 8 | DURHAM STAR | 5.9% | 16.94 | 9 |
| 5 | 11 | MANNA FROM HEAVEN | 4.0% | 24.93 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND | 3.4% | 29.75 | 8 |
| 7 | 10 | SHADOW BREAKER | 2.4% | 41.14 | 2 |
| 8 | 9 | MING WARRIOR | 2.4% | 42.24 | 12 |
| 9 | 5 | CASA DE FORCA | 2.3% | 42.95 | 11 |
| 10 | 2 | GREAT TREASURE | 2.2% | 45.62 | 5 |
| 11 | 4 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 2.0% | 49.42 | 3 |
| 12 | 1 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 0.9% | 111.39 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 39.5
PLACE
3 15.5
4 73
10 57.5
QUINELLA
3,10 419.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 188
3,10 130.5
4,10 792
FORECAST
3,10 537
TIERCE
3,10,4 9,546
TRIO
3,4,10 2,864
FIRST 4
3,4,10,11 3,346
QUARTET
3,10,4,11 53,019
All pools (4 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,9/3,4,10 113,537
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 21
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
2/3 119
2/10 132
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,3,7/2,3,9/Any Combination 3,109
3,7,10/2,3,9/Any Combination 4,929