Happy Valley · 2021-11-10
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SAVVY KINGMAN Wire to wire 1.49.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 6 | 3.0 | N |
| 2 | 0 | LEAP OF FAITH Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 3 | 4.3 | N |
| 3 | 0 | TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 4 | 22.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | HELENE ALLIBOR CP-/B1 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 2 | 6.6 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | DYNAMIC EAGLE Closed strongly A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 5 | 24.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | XIANG BAI QI Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 9 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | WORLD FAMOUS B/XB M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 1 | 9.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | MEANINGFUL STAR B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 4.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | SMART PATCH B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 46.0 | 5 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-10 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SAVVY KINGMAN, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with LEAP OF FAITH second and TIANCHI MONSTER third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SAVVY KINGMAN | 32.3% | 3.10 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | MEANINGFUL STAR | 25.4% | 3.94 | 8 |
| 3 | 0 | DYNAMIC EAGLE | 10.8% | 9.22 | 5 |
| 4 | 0 | LEAP OF FAITH | 7.8% | 12.76 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | WORLD FAMOUS | 7.4% | 13.49 | 7 |
| 6 | 0 | XIANG BAI QI | 6.2% | 16.04 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | HELENE ALLIBOR | 4.8% | 20.75 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 3.0% | 33.13 | 3 |
| 9 | 0 | SMART PATCH | 2.2% | 46.06 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 30.5
PLACE
2 43.5
3 17
8 14
QUINELLA
3,8 73
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 116
2,8 96.5
3,8 33
FORECAST
8,3 136
TIERCE
8,3,2 1,431
TRIO
2,3,8 444
FIRST 4
2,3,5,8 487
QUARTET
8,3,2,5 8,121
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 18
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
3/3 36.5
3/8 144.5