Sha Tin · 2021-11-21
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-21 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-3/4, with ENNEA FORTUNE second and SPEEDY MOUSE third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE TT 1.08.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 13 | 1.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | ENNEA FORTUNE H/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 1 | 8.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | SPEEDY MOUSE C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 3 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | NAMJONG SINGS B A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 6 | 25.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | STOCK LEGEND H/TT R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 2 | 76.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | TEAM SPIRIT B/TT K H Chan · W Y So | K H Chan | W Y So | 4 | 31.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | LUCKY QUALITY H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 10 | 177.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | CARROLL STREET XB/CP1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 11 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | DUBLIN STAR B/TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 8 | 41.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 14 | NEARLY FINE TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 12 | 59.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | ALCARI V V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 14 | 77.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | NEVER TOO SOON M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 9 | 18.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 9 | PACKING LAD J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 8.8 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 13 | BABY C Wong · K H Ting | C Wong | K H Ting | 5 | 153.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE | 55.1% | 1.82 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | SPEEDY MOUSE | 6.8% | 14.72 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | PACKING LAD | 6.2% | 16.05 | 13 |
| 4 | 1 | CARROLL STREET | 5.7% | 17.65 | 8 |
| 5 | 5 | NAMJONG SINGS | 5.2% | 19.32 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | NEVER TOO SOON | 3.7% | 26.96 | 12 |
| 7 | 10 | ALCARI | 3.3% | 29.97 | 11 |
| 8 | 13 | BABY | 3.1% | 32.40 | 14 |
| 9 | 7 | DUBLIN STAR | 2.8% | 36.33 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | ENNEA FORTUNE | 2.3% | 44.44 | 2 |
| 11 | 14 | NEARLY FINE | 2.2% | 46.09 | 10 |
| 12 | 2 | TEAM SPIRIT | 1.9% | 53.59 | 6 |
| 13 | 4 | STOCK LEGEND | 1.0% | 97.44 | 5 |
| 14 | 12 | LUCKY QUALITY | 0.9% | 116.55 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 16.5
PLACE
3 26
6 11.5
11 23
QUINELLA
6,11 69
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 36.5
3,11 129.5
6,11 32
FORECAST
6,11 113
TIERCE
6,11,3 604
TRIO
3,6,11 226
FIRST 4
3,5,6,11 902
QUARTET
6,11,3,5 7,462
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 14
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,5/3,6,11 22,705
9TH DOUBLE
5/6 135.5
5/11 176.5
SIX UP
5/7/1/7/5/6 120,641
5,14/7,10/1,2/2,7/2,5/6,11 5,516
3 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
7/5/6 2,065
7/5/11 2,821