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Sha Tin · 2021-11-21

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-21 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GOOD BUDDY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with MOONLUCK second and EMERALD SPUR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 GOOD BUDDY Closed strongly 1.22.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 14 3.0 N
2 12 MOONLUCK Closed strongly CP- R Maia · K W Lui 12 41.0 N
3 3 EMERALD SPUR Closed strongly B-/CP2/TT2 J Moreira · P F Yiu 1 5.3 1-1/4
4 14 YOUNG VICTORY TT A Badel · W Y So 6 5.8 1-3/4
5 5 ROYAL AGILITY CP-/B1/TT B Shinn · Y S Tsui 13 138.0 1-3/4
6 1 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 9 9.3 2
7 13 THE JOLLY Closed strongly CP-/XB-/B1/TT1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte 2 14.0 3-1/2
8 8 ISLAND SURPRISE H1 K C Leung · K L Man 10 108.0 3-1/2
9 11 COMPULSORY B/TT L Ferraris · A T Millard 4 39.0 3-3/4
10 7 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 11 29.0 4-1/4
11 10 SHENRON TT2 H Bentley · D A Hayes 5 34.0 4-1/2
12 6 ENCHANTING START B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 3 30.0 5
13 9 PEAK TO PEAK B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 7 6.8 5-1/4
14 2 GLORIFIED FIRE Led early K H Chan · C H Yip 8 22.0 15

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOOD BUDDY—2. MOONLUCK+0.05L3. EMERALD SPUR+1.25L4. YOUNG VICTORY+1.75L5. ROYAL AGILITY+1.75L6. CITY LEGEND+2L7. THE JOLLY+3.5L8. ISLAND SURPRISE+3.5L9. COMPULSORY+3.75L10. TURQUOISE ALPHA+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick GOOD BUDDY (26.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 GOOD BUDDY 26.6% 3.76 1
2 3 EMERALD SPUR 24.4% 4.10 3
3 9 PEAK TO PEAK 9.8% 10.21 13
4 1 CITY LEGEND 8.0% 12.51 6
5 14 YOUNG VICTORY 6.0% 16.71 4
6 7 TURQUOISE ALPHA 4.2% 23.59 10
7 2 GLORIFIED FIRE 4.2% 24.01 14
8 6 ENCHANTING START 4.0% 24.85 12
9 13 THE JOLLY 3.7% 27.35 7
10 12 MOONLUCK 2.9% 34.94 2
11 10 SHENRON 2.7% 37.14 11
12 11 COMPULSORY 2.0% 49.82 9
13 5 ROYAL AGILITY 1.1% 90.51 5
14 8 ISLAND SURPRISE 0.5% 192.07 8
GOOD BUDDY — wonEMERALD SPURPEAK TO PEAKCITY LEGENDYOUNG VICTORYTURQUOISE ALPHAGLORIFIED FIREENCHANTING STARTTHE JOLLYMOONLUCKSHENRONCOMPULSORYROYAL AGILITYISLAND SURPRISE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 30.5

PLACE

3 20

4 14.5

12 91.5

QUINELLA

4,12 666

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 42.5

3,12 313.5

4,12 231

FORECAST

4,12 1,046

TIERCE

4,12,3 5,830

TRIO

3,4,12 1,103

FIRST 4

3,4,12,14 1,457

QUARTET

4,12,3,14 34,286

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/4 121

1/12 284.5

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 20

← Race 1 Race 3 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99