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Sha Tin · 2021-11-21

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD 1000m Course B+2 8 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-21 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. MASTER EIGHT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with NERVOUS WITNESS second and HONG KONG WIN third. The 1.9 favourite NERVOUS WITNESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.55.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 MASTER EIGHT 0.55.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 1 2.2 1-3/4
2 8 NERVOUS WITNESS K Teetan · D A Hayes 7 1.9 1-3/4
3 1 HONG KONG WIN V Borges · J Size 3 24.0 3-1/4
4 5 GOLD CHEST CP/TT M F Poon · R Gibson 4 45.0 4
5 7 LOVING A BOOM TT K C Leung · R Gibson 2 50.0 4-1/4
6 2 VALIANT DREAM C L Chau · K W Lui 6 9.2 4-1/4
7 3 PING HAI BRAVO TT A Badel · J Size 5 30.0 6-3/4
8 6 FLYING BONUS K H Chan · C H Yip 8 77.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER EIGHT—2. NERVOUS WITNESS+1.75L3. HONG KONG WIN+3.25L4. GOLD CHEST+4L5. LOVING A BOOM+4.25L6. VALIANT DREAM+4.25L7. PING HAI BRAVO+6.75L8. FLYING BONUS+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MASTER EIGHT (58.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MASTER EIGHT 58.8% 1.70 1
2 8 NERVOUS WITNESS 30.1% 3.32 2
3 5 GOLD CHEST 2.5% 40.23 4
4 1 HONG KONG WIN 2.4% 41.87 3
5 2 VALIANT DREAM 2.4% 42.38 6
6 3 PING HAI BRAVO 1.8% 56.21 7
7 7 LOVING A BOOM 1.4% 73.37 5
8 6 FLYING BONUS 0.7% 140.16 8
MASTER EIGHT — wonNERVOUS WITNESSGOLD CHESTHONG KONG WINVALIANT DREAMPING HAI BRAVOLOVING A BOOMFLYING BONUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 22

PLACE

1 31.5

4 11

8 10.1

QUINELLA

4,8 19.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 52

1,8 46.5

4,8 13

FORECAST

4,8 35

TIERCE

4,8,1 175

TRIO

1,4,8 75

FIRST 4

1,4,5,8 202

QUARTET

4,8,1,5 1,293

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/4 68

4/8 17

3 PICK 1

A1 22

A3 —

A2 —

← Race 2 Race 4 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99