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Sha Tin · 2021-11-21

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 2000m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-21 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. ENTRUSTED, ridden by A Badel and trained by W Y So, won by SH, with CHEVALIER PRINCE second and HELENE ALLIBOR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.02.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT 2.02.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · W Y So 3 4.2 SH
2 14 CHEVALIER PRINCE Closed strongly CP M L Yeung · F C Lor 2 28.0 SH
3 6 HELENE ALLIBOR Closed strongly B B Shinn · D A Hayes 1 7.2 HD
4 7 ABOVE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · A T Millard 4 5.9 1-1/4
5 4 VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 10 17.0 2
6 9 SUPERBELLA Closed strongly V/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 7 16.0 2
7 8 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly M Chadwick · P F Yiu 6 10.0 2-1/4
8 1 LEAP OF FAITH C Schofield · J Size 14 22.0 3-1/4
9 3 ENZEMBLE XB Z Purton · K L Man 9 12.0 3-1/4
10 2 NORDIC SKY Closed strongly SR/XB V Borges · A T Millard 12 58.0 3-1/2
11 13 STIMULATION B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 5 21.0 3-3/4
12 11 GOD OF DRAGON Led early B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 8 8.1 4
13 12 GOLDEN SPECTRUM CP/H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 13 17.0 6
14 10 BLASTOISE L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 11 18.0 43

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ENTRUSTED2. CHEVALIER PRINCE+0.1L3. HELENE ALLIBOR+0.2L4. ABOVE+1.25L5. VINCY+2L6. SUPERBELLA+2L7. PRECISE EXPRESS+2.25L8. LEAP OF FAITH+3.25L9. ENZEMBLE+3.25L10. NORDIC SKY+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick HELENE ALLIBOR (16.5%) finished 3rd — the winner ENTRUSTED was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 HELENE ALLIBOR 16.5% 6.05 3
2 5 ENTRUSTED 15.6% 6.40 1
3 7 ABOVE 9.7% 10.33 4
4 11 GOD OF DRAGON 9.2% 10.81 12
5 3 ENZEMBLE 7.3% 13.76 9
6 10 BLASTOISE 6.6% 15.26 14
7 14 CHEVALIER PRINCE 6.3% 15.80 2
8 8 PRECISE EXPRESS 5.9% 17.07 7
9 1 LEAP OF FAITH 5.5% 18.04 8
10 12 GOLDEN SPECTRUM 4.6% 21.70 13
11 4 VINCY 4.5% 22.11 5
12 13 STIMULATION 3.7% 27.20 11
13 9 SUPERBELLA 3.2% 31.06 6
14 2 NORDIC SKY 1.3% 74.28 10
HELENE ALLIBORENTRUSTED — wonABOVEGOD OF DRAGONENZEMBLEBLASTOISECHEVALIER PRINCEPRECISE EXPRESSLEAP OF FAITHGOLDEN SPECTRUMVINCYSTIMULATIONSUPERBELLANORDIC SKY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 42.5

PLACE

5 17.5

6 24

14 86.5

QUINELLA

5,14 687.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 58.5

5,14 182.5

6,14 321

FORECAST

5,14 1,584

TIERCE

5,14,6 8,175

TRIO

5,6,14 1,207

FIRST 4

5,6,7,14 2,230

QUARTET

5,14,6,7 47,102

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 27

A2

A3

4TH DOUBLE

6/5 766

6/14 1,057.5