Sha Tin · 2021-11-21
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-21 was Group 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY PATCH, ridden by C L Chau and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with NABOO ATTACK second and SKY FIELD third. The 2.7 favourite COURIER WONDER finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LUCKY PATCH H/V 1.07.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 10 | 5.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 10 | NABOO ATTACK TT1 Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 9 | 8.1 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | SKY FIELD TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 1 | 6.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | COMPUTER PATCH TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 34.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | COURIER WONDER J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 2.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | STRONGER SR/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 2 | 8.6 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | WELLINGTON XB A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 7 | 7.1 | 3 |
| 8 | 1 | HOT KING PRAWN V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 3 | 31.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | SUPER WEALTHY C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 5 | 14.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | AMAZING STAR M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 4 | 69.0 | 5-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | COURIER WONDER | 24.8% | 4.03 | 5 |
| 2 | 6 | STRONGER | 14.2% | 7.06 | 6 |
| 3 | 10 | NABOO ATTACK | 13.5% | 7.39 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | LUCKY PATCH | 13.3% | 7.49 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | WELLINGTON | 9.5% | 10.56 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | SKY FIELD | 8.8% | 11.39 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | SUPER WEALTHY | 6.9% | 14.44 | 9 |
| 8 | 1 | HOT KING PRAWN | 4.6% | 21.81 | 8 |
| 9 | 4 | COMPUTER PATCH | 3.0% | 33.76 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | AMAZING STAR | 1.4% | 71.51 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 55
PLACE
3 21.5
7 19.5
10 24
QUINELLA
7,10 196
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 60
3,10 82
7,10 74
FORECAST
7,10 472
TIERCE
7,10,3 2,468
TRIO
3,7,10 455
FIRST 4
3,4,7,10 2,470
QUARTET
7,10,3,4 42,642
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 30.5
5TH DOUBLE
5/7 416.5
5/10 58.5
TRIPLE TRIO
6,10,11/5,6,14/3,7,10 19,819,969
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
6,10,11/5,6,14/Any Combination 42,877
WINNING TRAINER
B2 —
B3 16
B1 —