Sha Tin · 2021-11-21

Race 7

Group 2 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 7 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2021-11-21 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN SIXTY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with WAIKUKU second and SKY DARCI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.34.55

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	GOLDEN SIXTY Closed strongly 1.34.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	7	128 lb	1.1	1
2	2	WAIKUKU Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	4	128 lb	15.0	1
3	5	SKY DARCI Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	5	123 lb	10.0	2-1/2
4	4	MORE THAN THIS Closed strongly M F Poon · C S Shum	M F Poon	C S Shum	3	123 lb	22.0	3-1/2
5	3	SOUTHERN LEGEND Led early V2/TT B Shinn · C Fownes	B Shinn	C Fownes	1	123 lb	17.0	3-3/4
6	6	CHAMPION'S WAY P/TT K Teetan · J Size	K Teetan	J Size	2	123 lb	17.0	5
7	7	PRECIOUSSHIP H Bentley · P F Yiu	H Bentley	P F Yiu	6	123 lb	24.0	5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick SKY DARCI (33.4%) finished 3rd — the winner GOLDEN SIXTY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	SKY DARCI	33.4%	2.99	3	10.0
2	1	GOLDEN SIXTY	33.3%	3.00	1	1.1
3	2	WAIKUKU	14.5%	6.91	2	15.0
4	7	PRECIOUSSHIP	6.0%	16.72	7	24.0
5	6	CHAMPION'S WAY	5.4%	18.53	6	17.0
6	4	MORE THAN THIS	5.4%	18.66	4	22.0
7	3	SOUTHERN LEGEND	2.0%	49.58	5	17.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 11.5

PLACE

1 10.1

2 24.5

5 17

QUINELLA

1,2 52

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 26.5

1,5 18

2,5 71

FORECAST

1,2 86

TIERCE

1,2,5 223

TRIO

1,2,5 80

FIRST 4

1,2,4,5 93

QUARTET

1,2,5,4 849

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,7,10/1,2,5 6,573

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 11.5

A2 —

6TH DOUBLE

7/1 85

7/2 184

WINNING TRAINER

B1 —

B3 11.5

B2 —

B4 —

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